Aston Villa vs Man City Prediction: Treble-winners to continue stuttering run

 | December 05 | 

4 mins read

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Aston Villa face their toughest test of the season at fortress Villa Park on Wednesday night (20:15), as Pep Guardiola's treble-winning Manchester City roll up to B6.

The Midlands club have won all six Premier League games at Villa Park this season, with Liverpool (7/7) the only other side to win all their home games.

City, meanwhile, are smarting from a 3-3 draw at home to Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday, a result which means they are now three games without a win in the Premier League.

Aston Villa vs Man City Betting Tips:

  • Aston Villa to score over 1.5 goals @ 13/8
  • Aston Villa draw no bet @ 9/4

Team News

Matty Cash and Moussa Diaby came off the bench for Villa in Sunday's 2-2 draw at Bournemouth, and both should be confident of starting on Wednesday.

Alex Moreno and Jacob Ramsey will also be pushing for starts after recently making their returns from longer-term injuries, while Boubacar Kamara should return after serving a one-game suspension.

Nicolo Zaniolo looks the most likely to make way for Diaby after the draw with the Cherries made it 10 Premier League games without a goal or assist for the Italian. Diego Carlos, Lucas Digne and Youri Tielemans could also drop out.

City will be without several key stars for the trip to Birmingham. Jack Grealish has avoided the Villa boo-boys after picking up a fifth yellow card of the term against Spurs, with influential midfielder Rodri banned for the same reason.

The absence of Grealish will be more keenly felt if flying winger Jeremy Doku, who came off injured on Sunday, is prevented from playing.

Kevin De Bruyne is still out and there are question marks over Matheus Nunes, so midfield pickings are slim for City. Mateo Kovacic could start while John Stones and Rico Lewis may be pushed into roles in the middle. Kalvin Phillips is an option at the base of midfield, if Guardiola remembers he exists.

Match Odds

Villa are 10/3 to make it seven out of seven wins at home this term, while City are 7/10 to win at Villa Park for a fifth time under Guardiola. The sides played out a 1-1 draw in the corresponding fixture last season, and it's 16/5 for another stalemate here.

Both teams to score is 1/2 and it's 15/2 for a repeat of last season's scoreline.

Aston Villa to score over 1.5 goals @ 13/8

City are a far cry from the side that some were tipping to beat Chelsea's defensive record at the start of the season. The reigning champions have shipped 10 goals in their last four games in all competitions, including four to Chelsea and three to Spurs. They only conceded 16 in 19 Premier League away games in 2022-23 but have already let in nine in seven on their travels this term.

Ruben Dias and co couldn't pick a tougher venue to try and arrest that run, with 23 goals at home for Villa at least two more than anyone else in the division, despite them playing one or two fewer games than most.

Unai Emery's side have scored at least three goals in all of those games, so over 1.5 goals is a conservative bet by their standards. However, this should, in theory, be their toughest home game by a distance so far, despite City's struggles in defence recently. I'm happy to take the over 1.5 for Villa at 13/8.

Aston Villa draw no bet @ 9/4

There's probably no better time to play City, given they are three without a win in the Premier League and missing a host of key players. They've also been a shambles at the back, so the likes of Diaby and Ollie Watkins should be rubbing their hands at the thought of putting their name in lights against the 2022/23 Champions League winners.

Villa have been imperious at home this season while City have already suffered two league defeats on the road, at Wolves and Arsenal, while they also exited the Carabao Cup at Newcastle United.

A Villa win at 10/3 is tempting, but respecting the strength of the City squad and their achievements under Guardiola, the insurance policy of draw no bet offers a more attractive option, and still at a good price.

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips on our Football homepage.

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