Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur Prediction: Spurs can shock Gunners in north London derby

The second and final Premier League north London derby of the 2024/25 season takes place at the Emirates Stadium on Wednesday (20:00, TNT Sports) with both Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur under pressure to achieve a positive result. The Gunners are winless in their last three games while it's been exactly a month since the Lilywhites were victorious in the league, losing three of their four since thrashing stragglers Southampton 5-0 on December 15.

Below is my Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, as Ange Postecoglou seeks revenge for his side's 1-0 defeat to Mikel Arteta's men in September.

Team News

Gabriel Jesus suffered a suspected ACL injury in Arsenal's FA Cup third-round defeat to Manchester United on Sunday and his season looks to be over already.

Bukayo Saka, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Ben White and Ethan Nwaneri are still sidelined while Riccardo Calafiori is a doubt after missing the weekend cup tie.

Jorginho and Jurrien Timber both suffered cramps against the Red Devils but should be fine to feature on Wednesday.

Football Odds

Guglielmo Vicario is back in Tottenham training but the north London derby is likely to be a game too soon for his return to first-team action so we can expect January arrival Antonin Kinsky, who has kept clean sheets in both of his appearances so far - the 1-0 Carabao Cup semi-final first-leg win against Liverpool last Wednesday and the 3-0 extra-time success over Tamworth in the FA Cup on Sunday.

In defence, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven, Ben Davies and Destiny Udogie remain injured, as is forward Wilson Odobert, who has been joined in the treatment room by Timo Werner. Rodrigo Bentancur is still observing concussion protocols, too.

However, Richarlison is back for Spurs to make up for the absence of Werner, although any minutes he receives at the Emirates are likely to be limited given he hasn't played since November 3.

Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur Odds

Arsenal are 4/9 to do the double over their fierce rivals, giving the Gunners an implied win probability of 69.2%, while Spurs are 6/1, or a 14.3% chance, to beat Arteta's side for the first time since May 2022 when a brace from Harry Kane and a strike from Son Heung-min helped them to a 3-0 victory that ultimately saw them qualify for the Uefa Champions League at the expense of their neighbours.

There has only been one draw in the last 10 meetings between these sides but you can back a stalemate on Wednesday at 4/1 while both teams to score, which has landed in two of the three head-to-heads since Postecoglou took charge in the summer of 2023, is priced at 8/13.

Double Chance - Draw or Tottenham Hotspur @ 7/4

This could either be considered a brave or silly selection given Spurs' rancid Premier League form that has seen the Lilywhites lose five of their last seven games, only drawing at home to Wolves (2-2) and beating Southampton in that period.

Postecoglou's side have also lost the last two north London derbies and faced with a crippling injury list, visit an Arsenal side still gunning for the league title.

However, while I accept Spurs can be one of the easiest teams in the divisions to play through, and that their hosts on Wednesday are among the savviest, I have seen shoots of positivity from Postecoglou's men recently, particularly in their Carabao Cup win against Liverpool last week.

New goalkeeper Kinsky was vital in that victory, making seven saves on his debut, while Archie Gray and Djed Spence have both been in sparkling form of late in unfamiliar positions. Further forward, Lucas Bergvall, who scored the winner against Liverpool, has impressed, while Dejan Kulusevski and Dominic Solanke have been two reliable performers throughout the whole campaign.

Arsenal, meanwhile, are really struggling in front of goal recently, netting just twice across their last three games, with Kai Havertz particularly profligate in the two most recent matches against Newcastle United and Man United. Losing Gabriel Jesus, in addition to the already stricken Saka and Nwaneri, only further depletes the Gunners in attack.

Granted, Spurs' treatment room is even fuller at the moment, but they look overpriced to take at least a point on Wednesday.

Bet Builder - Arsenal Over 5.5 Corners, Gabriel Magalhaes (ARS) 2+ Shots, Jurrien Timber (ARS) 1+ Shots, Dejan Kulusevski (TOT) 1+ Shots @ 13/2

Arsenal have become renowned for their corner kicks this season and as well as producing quality when given the chance to take them, they've certainly had plenty of practice to nail down their technique.

The Gunners took seven corners in regulation time against Man United on Sunday and 11 against Newcastle last Tuesday, while they average 8.5 corners taken per Premier League game at the Emirates this season and won six in the reverse fixture at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in September.

Key to their success at corners has been Brazilian centre-back Gabriel who has scored five goals this season, the latest of which came against Man United on Sunday. He took three shots in that game - two in regulation time - and three against Newcastle last Tuesday.

Gabriel has shot at least twice in four Premier League games in 2024/25 and will be confident of recording a couple of attempts on Wednesday given he scored the winner earlier in the season at Spurs who are missing their two main centre-backs, Romero and Van de Ven, in midweek.

I'm also backing Gabriel's teammate, Timber, to shoot at least once. Timber mustered one attempt in September's reverse fixture and is averaging 0.6 shots per game in the Premier League this season while he shot twice against Man United on Sunday and three times against Newcastle the match before.

Completing this Bet Builder is Spurs' Swedish star Kulusevski who is averaging 1.6 shots per game in the Premier League and has recorded at least one in his last seven competition contests. He also shot three times against Arsenal in September.

Offers

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