Arsenal vs PSG Prediction: Gunners to gain the advantage

Arsenal cruised past serial Uefa Champions League winners Real Madrid in the quarter-finals and they have earned themselves a tussle with Paris Saint-Germain in the last-four, who they welcome to the Emirates on Tuesday (20:00, Prime Video).

The Gunners have had just short of a week to prepare for this clash after they were forced to settle for a draw with Crystal Palace in the Premier League on Wednesday. Les Parisiens make the trip to north London off the back of their first home defeat in Ligue 1 at the hands of Nice on Friday. Read on for my Arsenal vs PSG predictions, supported by the latest team news and match odds.

Football Odds

Team News

Thomas Partey is going to miss the first leg for Arsenal due to suspension. The ban was triggered by him picking up a needless yellow card at the Bernabeu against Real Madrid, which Declan Rice was not happy about.

Mikel Merino will be hoping to shake off his unspecified issue to come back into the team, where he'll likely join Rice and captain Martin Odegaard. The same goes for Ben White, who has recently had an issue with his knee.

Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta is still having to cope with injuries to Gabriel Magalhaes, Kai Havertz (both hamstring), Gabriel Jesus (ACL), Takehiro Tomiyasu (knee) and Jorginho (chest).

David Raya should line up in goal, shielded by Jurrien Timber, Jakub Kiwior, William Saliba and Myles Lewis-Skelly. At the top end of the pitch, expect Gabriel Martinelli, Leandro Trossard and Bukayo Saka to line up together.

PSG have a clean bill of health for their trip to the Emirates, which will give them a huge boost. There might be a little disappointment in the camp after a strong team was put out against Nice and they ended up losing their unbeaten record in the league. It doesn't matter too much as the Ligue 1 title has been wrapped up for a few weeks.

It was perhaps a sign of fatigue creeping in for Les Parisiens, but they will look for a response against Arsenal. Luis Enrique may be tempted to make one or two tweaks in the team, as Bradley Barcola will be pushing for a start, and he could be drafted in at the expense of Desire Doue.

PSG have also been impacted by Ousmane Dembele's magic drying up in recent weeks. The Frenchman has 44 goal involvements in as many matches this season but he is on a barren run of six games coming into Tuesday.

His influence on this team cannot be underestimated and if he is off the boil, so too are the rest of the side. Dembele is likely to feature up top, though, alongside Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and one of Barcola and Doue.

Arsenal vs PSG Odds

Arsenal have won seven of their last eight matches in the Champions League (including a victory against PSG here back in October) and they are 21/20 (which has an implied probability of 48.8%) to gain the victory in this first leg. The Gunners are also unbeaten at home in the UCL this term across six games.

Six of Arsenal's last 11 fixtures in all competitions have ended in a stalemate, and the draw is marketed at 12/5 on Tuesday.

PSG have won four of their seven away trips in Europe this campaign and they are 12/5 to come away with the victory.

Both teams to score has been a winning selection in each of Les Parisiens' previous five appearances across all competitions and 4/6 is the price for BTTS this time around.

Arsenal to win @ 21/20

Arsenal were clinical against Real Madrid in the quarter-finals and the Champions League is the only thing left for them to fight for now after Liverpool sealed the Premier League title on Sunday.

The Gunners have been smooth operators in Europe and they have proven to be a tough nut to crack, even when key personnel have been missing due to injury. I fancy their chances to win this first leg because of their impressive home record.

They are yet to be beaten in the Champions League at the Emirates, while they have only lost two (in 90 minutes) of their 27 fixtures here in all competitions in 2024/25.

The other reason I fancy the Gunners to win here is because they should have fresher legs than their French visitors as they have had two days extra to rest and prepare for this match.

PSG's confidence may have taken a knock having lost the second leg of their quarter-final clash to Villa, which has been followed by two games without a win in Ligue 1.

Declan Rice 1+ shots on target @ 7/4

I think there is value to be had in covering Arsenal midfielder Rice to have a shot on target against PSG because of the two stunning free-kicks he scored against Real Madrid at the Emirates in the quarter-finals earlier this month.

The England international has shown his value at stepping up to take set-pieces in dangerous areas, and he may be handed such duties again when PSG come to town.

Rice also likes to venture forward when he can and he often finds himself in good attacking spaces to let shots fly.

Offers

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