Alaves vs Real Madrid Prediction: Mbappe to strike for away side?

Real Madrid are back in action in La Liga this weekend against Alavés, and Carlo Ancelotti will be looking for a positive response after a miserable evening in North London on Tuesday.

Below you can find my Alaves vs Real Madrid predictions.

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While it took two sensational free-kicks from Declan Rice to break the resistance of Los Blancos in the Champions League, to some extent that was a result that had been coming.

The knockout stage play-off tie against Manchester City was the last time Real Madrid looked truly convincing, and that was perhaps as much a reflection of their opponents’ struggles as anything else.

Since then, Ancelotti’s men have stumbled along, edging past Atlético Madrid and Real Sociedad in two-legged cup ties by very fine margins, while they’ve been unconvincing in La Liga, mostly still finding a way to win, although 2-1 defeats against Real Betis and Valencia have certainly put a large dent in their title challenge.

The question was how Real Madrid might respond when they finally came up against one of Europe’s strongest sides. The hope was that their trip to the Emirates would see their superstars rise to the big occasion and spark into life, but in reality, this was a game that brutally exposed all of the flaws that have been evident over the past few weeks.

None of their big names really turned up against Arsenal, but there was again evidence of more systemic failures, particularly in midfield, with the Gunners dominating the game from the centre of the park.

There are few deficits that are unassailable for Real Madrid at the Bernabéu, but even the most ardent Madridista would now accept that La Liga is going to offer a much more realistic shot at silverware, and they cannot afford to drop points in Vitoria on Sunday, so we ought to see Ancelotti field a strong lineup.

This looks increasingly likely to be the Italian’s final season in the Spanish capital, and he’ll be desperate to win at least one of the trophies still up for grabs. He should have Dani Ceballos back soon which will be a boost to his malfunctioning midfield, but there may be no quick fix at the back, and it’s nine games without a clean sheet in all competitions for Los Blancos heading into this.

The visitors won’t be expecting any favours from Deportivo Alavés, with the Basque club fighting for their lives at the bottom end of the table. This is only their second season back in the top flight, and it’s a campaign that featured a big change in December when they made the surprising decision to sack Luis García Plaza, one of the most successful coaches in their history, after a poor run of results.

Former Celta Vigo boss Chacho Coudet was his replacement, and while performance levels did largely pick up following the change, the Argentine has consistently struggled to turn draws into victories.

Since his appointment, Alavés have played 16 games in all competitions, with exactly half of those finishing level. There have been moments when it has looked like Coudet himself might have been nearing the chop, but surprise victories over Betis in January, Villarreal in February, and at Girona only last weekend, the only three wins in his reign to date, have helped keep Alavés just outside the bottom three.

Their main source of goals has been Kike García. The former Middlesbrough and Eibar striker is now 35, but he’s playing some of the best football of his career, with 11 goals in 28 appearances in La Liga this term. His physical presence should keep the Real Madrid central defence busy in this game.

Team News

The home team do not have any injury concerns, but they are hampered by three suspensions heading into this. That includes the first-choice keeper Antonio Sivera. Winger Tomás Conechny and midfielder Jon Guridi also miss out.

That’s clearly not ideal from an Alavés perspective, but they can take some inspiration from Valencia who were in exactly the same situation with three players banned when they won 2-1 at the Bernabéu last weekend.

As for Real Madrid, Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão and Ferland Mendy miss out again due to injuries. David Alaba is rated doubtful, while Ceballos has an outside chance of featuring at some point on Sunday following more than a month on the sidelines.

Having not played since Tuesday at the Emirates, Real Madrid have had a reasonable amount of recovery time, and we may only see light rotation from Ancelotti, with Fran García and Lucas Vázquez potentially coming in to occupy the full-back roles.

Alaves vs Real Madrid Odds

Real Madrid are the 8/13 favourites to leave Mendizorrotza with maximum points. You can back the Draw at 3/1, while Alavés are available at 9/2 to win this fixture for the first time since 2018.

Los Blancos have won on each of their four visits since then. The visitors are priced at 3/1 to win both halves this weekend, while you can back Real Madrid -1.00 Handicap at 13/8. Ancelotti’s side are also available at 2/1 to score over 2.5 goals.

Alternatively, if you see Madrid’s problems worsening in this game, you can back Alavés or Draw at 5/4 in the Double Chance market. The home team are priced at 9/5 to win either half, while you can back Both teams to score at 8/11.

While Kylian Mbappé has continued to score at a healthy rate, Real Madrid’s other attacking stars haven’t enjoyed the best of runs in front of goal of late. If you see that changing in Vitoria, you can dive into the Anytime Goalscorer market, with Vinícius Júnior priced at 8/5, Jude Bellingham on offer at 23/10 and Rodrygo priced at 13/5.

Kike García is the most obvious candidate for a home goal, with the veteran forward available at 7/1 to score first, and 21/10 to score anytime.

Kylian Mbappe to score anytime @ 19/20

There remains a sense that the balance isn’t quite right up top at Real Madrid, but Ancelotti largely seems to have settled on a system designed to create as many opportunities as possible for Mbappé, even if that is at the detriment of his other attacking players.

With back-up striker Endrick only clocking up 122 minutes of La Liga football this term, there’s little prospect of Mbappé being rested here and he should get opportunities to test what will be the Alavés back-up keeper given Sivera’s suspension.

Having netted 19 goals in his last 21 appearances for Los Blancos, Mbappé has been in good form since the turn of the year and I’m backing the Frenchman to score anytime at 19/20 here.

Most Corners - Alaves @ 9/4

Real Madrid are not dominating matches right now, with even some of La Liga’s weaker teams giving them a real run for their money in recent weeks. Alavés have been competing pretty well under Coudet, and they may be further up the league had they been a bit more clinical.

With the visitors not looking good in midfield, Alavés should be able to get a foothold in this match and punters might be interested in the respective corner stats of these two teams this season in La Liga which make for surprising reading. Alavés are averaging 5.93 corners per home game, while Real Madrid have only managed 4.40 corners for on their travels, compared to 4.93 against.

Those numbers alone suggest there may be value in backing Alavés to have the most corners in this game at 9/4.