Alaves vs Real Madrid Prediction: Back Real to win by two or more

Backing Jude Bellingham to score anytime was once again a profitable ploy for Mark Sochon last week and our La Liga expert is here with his final preview of 2023, as he takes us through Alaves vs Real Madrid this Thursday evening...

Real Madrid’s final game of 2023 sees them make a trip north to the Basque Country to take on newly promoted Alaves. You can catch the game live on Viaplay with a 20:30 kick-off on Thursday night.

This has historically been a very happy hunting ground for Los Blancos. They went 87 years without losing a league game in Vitoria before suffering a shock 1-0 defeat in 2018. Normal service has resumed since then though with three straight Real Madrid wins at Mendizorrotza, the last two by 4-1 margins.

Judging by the respective performances of these sides in their last matches, a repeat can’t be ruled out here.

Real Madrid are the only one of Spain’s “big three” who are playing convincing football right now and they were absolutely dominant against Villarreal at the weekend, winning 4-1 at the Santiago Bernabeu. Given the number of injury absentees, it’s really impressive what they are doing and there are players in great form across the pitch.

Andriy Lunin, a back-up to Thibaut Courtois for the past three seasons, finally appears to have earned the trust of Ancelotti and has been keeping loanee Kepa out of the side with some assured performances. Antonio Rudiger is having a much better second season in Spain and has risen to be a leader for a defence that was rocked by a fresh injury blow on Sunday with David Alaba the third Real Madrid player to suffer an ACL tear this term.

Having started the season on the bench, Toni Kroos and Luka Modric are getting more game-time now and are reminding everyone of their class. 38 year old Modric was outstanding against Villarreal while there’s not much that’s left to be said about Jude Bellingham who scored yet again at the weekend.

Even the absence of Vinicius Junior doesn’t seem to be affecting Real Madrid with Brahim Diaz, who scored a wonderful solo goal on Sunday, enjoying his best spell in La Liga while Rodrygo and Joselu are also providing a consistent threat.

This is certainly a daunting task for Alaves who were on the wrong end of a 3-0 scoreline away to leaders Girona on Monday night.

They’ll be relatively content with how they’ve adjusted to life in the top division overall with 16 points from 17 games leaving them with a small cushion on the relegation zone. Alaves have won more than they’ve lost at home, but punters may want to consider their record against the better sides in the league with four defeats out of four against top six opposition while they haven’t beaten anyone ranked higher than Valencia, currently 10th.

Much of the focus in this game will be on their centre-back Rafa Marin, a Real Madrid loanee who has been touted for a potential return to the Santiago Bernabeu in January given the Alaba injury and Eder Militao’s continued absence.

It certainly feels like something of an audition for the 21 year old, although there is not believed to be a recall agreement in the loan deal, so Real Madrid would have to negotiate with Alaves should they want him back.

Midfielder Antiono Blanco is another Real Madrid academy graduate who will line up for Alaves here while the home team’s main danger man will be Samu Omorodion, a powerful 19 year old forward who is on loan from Atletico Madrid.

Team News:

After the defeat on Monday, Alaves boss Luis Garcia could consider some light rotation to freshen things up. He’s likely to go with three centre-backs again in an attempt to keep Real Madrid’s forward line quiet, although the approach was unsuccessful on Monday in Girona.

Centre-back Aleksandar Sedlar and forward Giuliano Simeone, son of Atletico Madrid boss Diego, are both sidelined through injury.

Real Madrid meanwhile have been rocked by the Alaba blow with the Austrian likely to miss the rest of the season. That should mean regular starts for Nacho alongside Rudiger in the heart of Ancelotti’s defence, at least until the return of Eder Militao.

There is no prospect of Vinicius Junior, Ferland Mendy or Dani Carvajal returning in time for this game either while Joselu has been ill but has travelled to Vitoria. Ancelotti also confirmed in his pre-match press conference that Kepa will rotate in for this game in place of Lunin in goal.

Match Odds:

Real Madrid are the 4/7 favourites to win this game and keep the pressure up on Girona at the top of La Liga. The draw is available at 3/1 while a surprise Alaves win is priced at 5/1.

Having opened the scoring on Sunday with his 13th league goal of the season, the Bellingham roadshow heads north with the Englishman an 11/2 shot to score first again here. You can also back Bellingham to Score Anytime at 7/4.

Real Madrid and Both Teams to Score is available at a tempting 9/4, a bet that has landed in five of the last six meetings between the clubs on this ground. Meanwhile a third straight Real Madrid 4-1 win at Mendizorrotza is available at 22/1.

Bet 1 - Real Madrid -1 Handicap @ 6/4

On current form, Real Madrid are playing with the sort of confidence and attacking swagger that suggests they can come here and record quite a comfortable victory over an Alaves side that has competed well this term but is showing signs that they might be heading for a dip in form.

They lost to fellow new boys Las Palmas in their last home game and haven’t scored in La Liga since the 3-1 win over Granada at the end of November.

Six of Real Madrid’s last eight games in all competitions have seen them win by at least a two goal margin and they’ve a slight advantage in that they’ve had an extra day off to prepare for this game than their opponents.

Overall, it feels like a great opportunity for Los Blancos to close out 2023 with another convincing win and I’m backing Real Madrid -1 Handicap at 6/4.

Bet 2 - Real Madrid & Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/8

Alaves are by no means a convincing attacking side, but they do have a couple of genuine threats with winger Luis Rioja their main creative force while Omorodion’s aerial prowess will be a real test for Nacho on his return to the team.

A home goal certainly can’t be ruled out and Alaves have scored exactly once in each of their last six home league games against Real Madrid, although it’s true that this is a very different squad to the one that went down in 2022.

Ancelotti has got this Madrid team performing though and he’s found a way to get the best out of virtually all of his available attack-minded players. They’ve rattled in 25 goals in their last eight matches in all competitions and I also like the look of Real Madrid and Over 2.5 Goals at 11/8 here.

You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...