AFCON 2025 Group A Predictions: Hosts Morocco hoping for Hakimi return to see off Mali challenge

Host nation Morocco and Comoros kick off the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations in Rabat on Sunday, with the two teams joined in Group A of the 24-team tournament by Mali and Zambia, who meet in Casablanca the following day.

Ahead of the action, I've delivered my Afcon Group A predictions, complete with team-by-team previews and Betfred’s match odds, which you can check out below.

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Africa Cup of Nations Odds

Comoros

Fifa world ranking: 108

To win the group: 33/1

This will be Comoros' second-ever Afcon, following their third-place finish in Group C of the 2021 edition (played in 2022), which saw them advance to the last 16, where they were knocked out 2-1 by host nation Cameroon.

Comoros will likely be targeting third place again this year, with Morocco and Mali expected to be in a two-way tussle for first.

The Coelacanths topped and went unbeaten in a qualification group containing Tunisia, Gambia and Madagascar (W3, D3), but more recently, they ended fourth, behind Ghana, Madagascar and Mali, in their 2026 World Cup qualification group.

Head coach Stefano Cusin, hailing from Montreal, Canada, boasts a 40.5% win record as head coach of Comoros, who he joined in October 2023, but this will be his first Afcon, and there is a lack of tournament and big-game experience in his squad, too.

Key player: Rafiki Said

Standard Liege winger Rafiki Said has scored eight goals in 17 caps for Comoros, netting twice in the Afcon qualifiers - joint-most for the Coelacanths - and three times in the World Cup qualifiers.

The 25-year-old earned his big move to the Belgian top flight last summer after registering 12 goal contributions in both the 2023/24 (nine goals, three assists) and 2024/25 (eight goals, four assists) Ligue 2 seasons for French side Troyes.

He's made a solid, if unspectacular, start to life in Belgium, scoring three goals and setting up a teammate twice in 17 Pro League outings, but with 15 of those being starts, he's certainly earned the trust of his club manager.

Said will now be looking to establish himself on an even bigger stage, and his ability to drive the ball up the pitch could be crucial for his country.

In this season's Pro League, only five players are averaging more dribbles per game than Said (2.6), whose 50% success rate puts him fourth among the top-10 most prolific dribblers.

Prediction: Fourth

A single victory, alongside two defeats, was enough for Comoros to finish third and book a place in the knockout phase in the 2021 tournament, and I certainly wouldn't rule out something similar unfolding in Morocco.

However, playing the hosts, and a nation as supremely talented as the Atlas Lions, on the opening night, is far from ideal, and they could be looking up the table from the get-go.

Football Odds

Mali

Fifa world ranking: 54

To win the group: 5/2

Mali have participated in the previous nine Afcons, but the Eagles, runners-up at their first tournament in 1972, haven't reached the semi-finals since 2013, suffering back-to-back group-stage exits in 2015 and 2017, back-to-back last-16 finishes in 2019 and 2021 (played in 2022), before losing 2-1 to eventual winners Ivory Coast in 2023 (played in 2024).

The West African nation went unbeaten in qualifying (W4, D2), scoring 10 goals and conceding just once in a group also containing Mozambique, Guinea-Bissau and Eswatini.

However, while they maintained a good defensive record in their World Cup qualifiers, letting in just six goals in 10 games, they finished third in Group A, behind Ghana and Madagascar, failing to reach their first-ever World Cup.

Key player: Dorgeles Nene

Dorgeles Nene only started one game at the 2023 Afcon, but he made a name for himself in the quarter-finals, coming off the bench in the 63rd minute and scoring a stunning long-range goal eight minutes later to put his country in the lead against the Ivory Coast, only for the host nation to equalise in the 90th minute and triumph after extra time.

Nearly two years later, and the 22-year-old, who turns 23 on December 23, is a more established player for Mali, one who will expect to be starting in Morocco.

Nene (three goals) was Mali's top scorer in Afcon qualifying, and he helped himself to another three strikes in the World Cup qualifiers, too.

The winger secured a big move to Turkish giants Fenerbahce last summer and has since scored twice and registered four assists for the Yellow Canaries.

This could be a big tournament for the former Red Bull Salzburg star.

Prediction: Second

Morocco will be a tough team to surpass in Group A, but with the quality they possess, Mali shouldn't be finishing any lower than second, and at 12/1, they could be dark horses to win the competition for the first time.

Morocco

Fifa world ranking: 11

To win the group: 4/9

The tournament favourites (5/2), a lot is expected of Morocco in their home tournament.

The Atlas Lions reached the semi-finals of the 2022 Fifa World Cup in Qatar, knocking out Spain and Portugal before losing 2-0 to France, and they are currently the highest-ranked Caf nation, with only Senegal (19) also in the top 30.

However, it's fair to say that the 1976 Afcon champions are under pressure to deliver a second title in 2026, having suffered a shock 2-0 defeat to South Africa in the last 16 of the 2024 edition, and failing to reach the semi-finals since 2004, when they were beaten 2-1 in the final by Tunisia.

Key player: Achraf Hakimi

Paris Saint-Germain full-back Achraf Hakimi is facing a race against time to be fit for the Afcon.

The Morocco captain suffered an ankle injury in his club side's 2-1 Champions League defeat to Bayern Munich on November 4 and hasn't featured since, although he has been named in the North African nation's squad for the upcoming tournament.

Hakimi may not be fit enough to play any of the group-stage games, but if he can recover to play in the knockout phase, he could have a big part to play in delivering his country the title.

The 27-year-old has scored 11 goals in 88 national team caps, and he registered four goals and five assists in last season's Champions League to help PSG land their first trophy in the tournament. He's a man for the big occasion, and Morocco will hope he can translate that sort of form to the Afcon.

Prediction: First

Comoros is a nice start to proceedings for Morocco, whose big game comes against Mali on December 26. While the potential absence of Hakimi is a blow, with the likes of Brahim Diaz and Youssef En-Nesyri in the squad, head coach Walid Regragui can hardly complain about a lack of talent, so they should be more than a match for anyone.

Zambia

Fifa world ranking: 90

To win the group: 9/1

Zambia lost their opening Afcon qualifier 2-0 to the Ivory Coast before embarking on a five-game unbeaten run (W4, D1) that saw them exact revenge in the reverse fixture (1-0) and pip the Elephants to top spot.

The Copper Bullets were less impressive in their World Cup qualification campaign, finishing fourth behind Morocco, Niger and Tanzania, with head coach Avram Grant paying the price for poor results in Group E.

Moses Sichone, who has succeeded Grant in the dugout, is now tasked with trying to take the 2012 champions past the group stage, where they faltered in the 2023 edition.

Key player: Kennedy Musonda

Hapel Ramat Gan striker Kennedy Musonda scored more than half (four) of Zambia's seven goals in the Afcon qualification campaign, so he will be hoping to play an important role in Morocco.

The 30-year-old isn't as widely known as Leicester City attacker Patson Daka or Al-Fahya forward Fashion Sakala, formerly of Rangers, but having helped his country to the finals, he will be eager to make more of a name for himself here.

Prediction: Third

It's difficult to see Zambia getting any change out of Morocco or Zambia, so it looks like a two-way battle between them and Comoros for fourth.

If the Copper Bullets do manage to finish as one of the four best third-placed teams, I can't see them going any further than the last 16, with an important player like Daka in such poor form for his club side over the last couple of years.

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