AC Milan vs Roma Prediction: Dybala to inflict more damage on I Rossoneri

AC Milan were mightily close to a third Milan derby success of the season on Sunday as they led against rivals Inter for more than 45 minutes before Stefan de Vrij broke Rossoneri hearts in the third minute of second-half stoppage time, equalising to level the score at 1-1.

Sergio Conceicao's side are back at San Siro on Wednesday (20:00, Premier Sports 1), this time in the Coppa Italia quarter-finals, where they host an AS Roma outfit that experienced contrasting emotions on the weekend, with Angelino scoring in the second minute of added time to salvage a point in a 1-1 draw with Napoli. Below is my AC Milan vs Roma prediction, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this cup clash in northern Lombardy.

Team News

Milan have been busy in the winter transfer window, bringing in Kyle Walker, Joao Felix and Riccardo Sottil on loan, as well as signing Warren Bondo and Santiago Gimenez on permanent deals. Walker made his debut in the Milan derby but the other four only arrived this week and two of them - Sottil and Bondo - are ineligible on Wednesday after featuring earlier in the competition for Fiorentina and Monza respectively.

Gimenez, who has joined in a big-money move from Feyenoord, is nursing a muscle injury and won't play in midweek, but Chelsea's Joao Felix could play his first minutes as a Rossoneri against Roma.

Emerson Royal (muscle), Ruben Loftus-Cheek (thigh) and Alessandro Florenzi (knee) remain sidelined, but Youssouf Fofana is back available after serving a suspension on the weekend.

Ismael Bennacer, who started against Inter before being withdrawn at half-time, has since left on loan to Marseille, joining Kevin Zeroli (Monza), Alvaro Morata (Galatasaray), Noah Okafor (Napoli) and Davide Calabria (Bologna) in making temporary exits from the club.

Football Odds

Roma's major mid-season signing was Devyne Rensch from Ajax and the 22-year-old has already played twice for I Giallorossi, starting the 2-1 win over Udinese on January 26 and the draw with Napoli a week later. In the last couple of days, the capital club signed another Dutch defender, Anass Salah-Eddine, on a permanent deal from FC Twente, and brought in Danish centre-back Victor Nelsson (Galatasaray) and French midfielder Lucas Gourna-Douath (Red Bull Salzburg) on loans.

Head coach Claudio Ranieri dropped star strikers Paulo Dybala and Artem Dovbyk down to the bench for the weekend visit of Napoli, perhaps with their midweek match in mind, so expect the duo to return to 'Tinkerman's' starting XI at San Siro.

Leandro Paredes, Mats Hummels, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Alexis Saelemaekers and Zeki Celik could also earn promotions from the bench, but Gianluca Mancini is suspended.

AC Milan vs Roma Odds

Milan have lost just twice at San Siro all season, to the current Italian (Napoli - 0-2) and English (Liverpool - 1-3) league leaders, and not since October 29, winning and drawing an equal number of their last 10 home games. I Rossoneri are 1/1, or a 50% chance, to win in regulation time on Wednesday, while Roma are 23/10 to triumph without the need for a penalty shootout, giving the visitors an implied probability of 30.3%.

The draw, which would send the tie straight to spot-kicks, is priced at 9/4, with the hosts 4/7 to win the tie by any means and I Giallorossi 5/4 in the same market.

Anytime Goalscorer - Paulo Dybala (ROM) @ 5/2

Dybala was only introduced in the 80th minute of Sunday's stalemate with Napoli with Ranieri clearly keen to manage his game time given the injuries the Argentine attacker has suffered in recent years.

The 31-year-old should be a shoo-in to start on Wednesday, though, and given his goalscoring record against Milan, 5/2 is an attractive price to back him to breach their defence again this week.

Dybala has faced Milan 26 times previously across spells at Palermo, Juventus and Roma, netting 10 goals - eight in Serie A and once apiece in the Coppa Italia and Uefa Europa League. Two of those have been scored for I Giallorossi, with the latest coming earlier this season as he struck Roma's equaliser in a 1-1 draw at San Siro in December. Only against Udinese (14), Lazio and Genoa (both 11) has he scored more goals.

Milan have struggled to keep clean sheets since Conceicao took over the reins at the start of the year, managing just one in nine games under the Portuguese tactician, while Roma have scored in nine of their last 10 matches.

Dybala hasn't scored since that strike at San Siro, going six games without a goal, but Wednesday marks a great opportunity for him to get back on the scoresheet, and I think he'll grab the chance with both hands.

Both Teams to Score - Yes @ 4/6

As previously mentioned, Milan have recorded just one shutout in nine games under Conceicao, a far cry from the two clean sheets they kept in Paulo Fonseca's final three matches in charge.

Roma, meanwhile, have kept three in their last nine but they have all been at the Stadio Olimpico; away from home, it's been a different story as after starting the season with goalless draws at Cagliari and Juventus, I Giallorossi are now 13 games without a clean sheet on their travels, although they have managed to score in nine of them.

Both teams to score has been a winner in 13 of the last 15 head-to-heads between these two teams and with the wealth of attacking talent expected to be on display this week, from Rafael Leao, Christian Pulisic and Tijjani Reijnders on the home side, and Dybala and Dovbyk for the visitors, I'm expecting Milan and Roma to both find the net.

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