AC Milan vs Inter Milan Prediction: San Siro semi-final awaits

We’ve got a belting Milan derby coming our way on Wednesday night as San Siro hosts AC Milan vs Inter Milan (20:00, Premier Sports 2) in their Coppa Italia semi-final. We’ve got a two-legged edition of the Derby della Madonnina to salivate over, as the historic rivals battle it out for a place in the final against either Bologna or Empoli. 

Below you can find my AC Milan vs Inter Milan predictions, with Milan the designated home team for this first leg. 

Football Odds

Team News

Sergio Conceicao seems to have a wealt of options heading into this game, as only Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Emerson Royal remain sidelined. The former Chelsea midfielder has undergone emergency appendix surgery recently and will remain out for the forseeable, but Malick Thiaw’s illness appears to have subsided. 

Alessandro Florenzi is also back fit after his long lay-off while the manager must decide whether Santiago Gimenez or Tammy Abraham should lead the line. Star man Rafael Leao was named on the bench against Napoli but is expected to come back into the starting XI, while Yunus Musah is hoping to force his way back into the midfield picture after serving his suspension.

Kyle Walker and Theo Hernandez will continue in the full-back positions, and Fikayo Tomori will hope to find his way back into the manager’s plans in the heart of the back four. 

On the other side of the coin, Kristjan Asllani is suspended for the first leg for Inter, although Alessandro Bastoni is back from his own ban. On the injury front, they must make do without Denzel Dumfries, Piotr Zielinski and captain Lautaro Martinez. 

El Toro suffered a hamstring strain on international duty and although he will miss this game, he is back in training and could play in the second leg. It means Marko Arnautovic is in pole position to partner Marcus Thuram up top, with Joaquin Correa another option in the final third if Simone Inzaghi chooses to go down a different path. 

AC Milan vs Inter Milan Odds

Milan are priced at 21/10 to win this game and they’ve won seven of their 15 league games at home this season. Inter meanwhile are 11/10, giving them an implied win probability of 47% heading into this semi-final. A draw after 90 minutes can be backed at 23/10 which would keep the tie level heading into the second leg. 

There are no away goals in the Coppa Italia, but in terms of goals, over 2.5 can be backed at 8/11 and BTTS is 8/13. Thuram is the favourite to open the scoring at 11/2 having scored 13 goals this season. 

BTTS @ 8/13

There’s so much attacking quality on show here that I think we will see goals at both ends. These two have already met three times this season - more on that later - but in all three head-to-heads both teams have scored.

Milan have seen both teams score in 18 of their 30 fixtures so far this term in Serie A and its also come in during their last seven games in all competitions. Meanwhile, Inter have seen BTTS come in during 50% of their league fixtures, and three of their last four in all competitions. A confident selection. 

AC Milan to win @ 21/10

Inter are 20 points clear of their city rivals and are in pole position to win the Serie A title, so it may seem strange that I’m backing Milan to come out on top. However, despite being left in dust in terms of the title race this season and currently sitting down in ninth, they have got the better of their rivals so far this term. 

They beat Inter in the away game in the league 2-1 thanks to Matteo Gabbia’s late goal, while they also came out on top in the Supercoppa Italiana final in Saudi Arabia thanks to another late strike, this time from Abraham. The most recent league meeting ended 1-1, so Milan are more than a match for their rivals when it comes down to it. I think they can edge another derby in this first leg. 

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