AC Milan vs Roma Prediction: Back Both Teams to Score

The game of the week in Serie A comes come the San Siro where AC Milan host Roma.

Our man Daniele Fisichella is here with his thoughts and Best Bets ahead of the match live on TNT Sports this Sunday evening, with a 19:45 kick-off...

It was a very sour Wednesday night for both sets of fans as Rossoneri and Giallorossi got knocked out from the Coppa Italia.

AC Milan lost against Atalanta at San Siro, a defeat (their first since the last 9th of December, again against the Bergamaschi) that has re-instilled doubts their crisis is not over yet.

Roma failed to score against Lazio for the fourth consecutive time, lost deservedly 1-0, and once again, looked well under par against a domestic top opponent.

The lack of ‘big’ wins for Mourinho’ side is a real concern: last Sunday’s 1-1 draw at the Olimpico against Atalanta was the 12th occasion (out of the last 19 games) they failed to beat a top-7 side.

Roma, whose away record is very poor (only two wins and a -4 goal difference on the road), are seriously under pressure coming into this match. The nervousness in their camp is palpable (Mou, Mancini and Azmoun were all sent off in the derby), and the numbers are gloomy.

Halfway through the season they’ve got eight points less in the table compared to last year and have won only one of their last five Serie A games.

A slip at the San Siro might see them losing touch with the likes of Fiorentina, Atalanta and Lazio who this weekend all have favourable home fixtures.

On the other hand, AC Milan have started to hit form, in fact in the last seven Serie A games, only Inter and Juve have collected more points (17) than Pioli’s men (16 in total).

But have they actually turned the corner?

Since December they’ve had an easy schedule and boosted their morale thanks to five wins against teams in the bottom half of the table.

However the encouraging numbers (AC Milan have won six out of their last seven home games, including a 2-1 success against PSG), can’t mask their difficulties in managing games, especially after scoring first and slowing the tempo.

The Rossoneri were not able to hang on to their lead for more than a minute in Coppa Italia against Atalanta and also in the second half against Empoli, as they were 2-0 up, they suffered a mini-black out and almost allowed the team with Serie A’s worse attacking numbers to put one past Mike Maignan.

As the Rossoneri injury list remains very long, it’s perhaps early to think they’re completely out of the woods.

Team News:

However the big absentee for this match is in the Roma’s camp.

Mourinho (who won’t be sitting on the bench as he also got sent off last weekend), will probably be without his best player, Paulo Dybala. The Argentine was subbed off at half-time during the Coppa Italia derby, due to a muscular injury, and is a big doubt for the trip to San Siro. A gigantic blow for the visitors considering Dybala has been involved in nine goals since October. Former AC Milan striker El Shaarawy should play alongside Romelu Lukaku up front.

Former Leeds United defender Diego Llorente should be fit to play alongside Cristante and Mancini. Captain Lorenzo Pellegrini is expected to form the midfield trio with Paredes and Bove.

The hosts are without three centre-backs (Thiaw, Tomori and Kalulu); also Matteo Gabbia, who came out injured at half-time against Atalana, is a doubt. Theo Hernandez might have to play again at centre-back, with the youngster Jimenez on the left hand side of the defence. In midfield Musah and Adli are in contention for a start alongside Reijndeers.

Olivier Giroud will lead the line, with Rafael Leao (two goals and one assists in the last three games), and Pulisic on the flanks.

AC Milan vs Roma Odds:

AC Milan are favourite to win the match, but the odds for their success are high, 23/20.

They’ve lost only two games at home this season in Serie A (both 1-0 against Juve and Udinese) and have the best domestic defensive record (four goals conceded) alongside the side from Turin.

The odds for the draw are 9/4, the hosts have only drawn one of their 14 home games in all competitions (0-0 against Newcastle), and Roma have shared the points in only two away Serie A games so far. However last season this game ended 2-2.

Roma haven’t won at San Siro against AC Milan since 2017, and have conceded in 11 out of 12 away matches so far. Back in October they lost 1-0 to Inter in Milan, hence the high odds for a Giallorossi win (5/2).

Normally Roma’s games against big teams are low scoring affairs. Eight of their last nine games against Italian top oppositions have been Under 2.5 Goals.

On the other hand, five of the last six AC Milan home matches, in all competitions, have ended with Over 2.5 goals.

For this match the odds for Under are 8/13, whereas the Over pays 6/5.

Bet 1 - Milan or Draw and Over 1.5 Goals @ 8/11

Roma have always struggled without Dybala and their defense is far from impenetrable, in fact they’ve only kept one clean sheet in the last six.

They always lack of creativity when the Argentine is not on the pitch and AC Milan might simply have more ammunition

Rafael Leao is mercurial, brilliant and frustrating at the same time, but lately the likes of Luka Jovic, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, and Olivier Giroud have all rediscovered their scoring boots. You can double up these markets via our #PickYourPunt feature.

Bet 2 - Both Teams To Score @ 10/11

Considering the last disappointing results Mourinho must, at some point, throw caution out of the window and try to have a go at AC Milan who are also missing many key players.

The experience of Roma and their ability to score from set-pieces might pay off, but equally AC Milan’s dynamism up front is likely to cause the Giallorossi more than one problem.

Ten of the last 11 Serie A meetings between these sides have seen both teams score.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...