Mexican Grand Prix 2024 Predictions: Norris can get back on top

Did you know that Mexico has more pyramids than Egypt does? It’s also sinking by 12cm every single year. Anyway, the country that gave the world chocolate is once again hoping to provide the world with a sweet treat this weekend as the circus that is Formula One comes to town. 

After Charles Leclerc headed a Ferrari one-two in the USA last weekend, we could possibly have a three-horse race on our hands for the Drivers’ Championship, with Max Verstappen still leading the way from Lando Norris. With five races to go, below you can find my Mexican Grand Prix 2024 predictions.

Charles Leclerc to finish on the podium @ 2/5

Let’s start with arguably the most consistent driver on the grid at the moment. Ferrari have found some excellent pace over the past couple of months and it culminated in the perfect weekend in Texas, as Carlos Sainz came second behind his Monagasque teammate. 

It all started from the first corner in the USA, as pole-sitter Norris and Verstappen got caught up with each other on turn one, allowing Leclerc to surge into the lead and from there, he didn’t look back once. It’s a sign of his confidence and the speed of the Ferrari at this current moment that he was never under any real pressure at the front, and I think he can certainly land himself in the top three again.

Drivers’ Championship 2024 Odds

His consistency over the past six races has been impressive, as Leclerc has won two and collected three further podiums in that time. His ‘worst’ finish in that period was fifth in Singapore, and that’s always a difficult track to master under the lights. He’s still hunting his first Drivers’ Championship and although he’s closing the gap, it does seem a bit of a stretch to suggest he can haul in both Verstappen and Norris before the season’s end. 

He’s currently 79 points behind the Red Bull driver, but second place is certainly up for grabs as he’s just 22 points adrift of the Brit. These are short odds for a podium finish but I’m extremely happy to be on Leclerc’s side once again, I just fear he may not get the luck he needs to win the race in Mexico.

Lando Norris to be on pole position @ 15/8

This one makes the most sense in my eyes. Norris clearly is the fastest driver in qualifying at the moment, it's just that his dreadful starts keep letting him down in the race. Statistically, he is the most likely to be on pole based on what we have seen over the last few months. 

In fact, he’s been on pole in five of the last seven races, with Leclerc taking the other two. Verstappen doesn’t appear to be as threatening at this moment, so backing Norris to be on pole once again is sensible. I actually believe we are getting pretty good value on him to be the fast qualifier given his recent form over one lap. If Verstappen had hit five poles from seven, you’d think his odds would be a lot shorter. Let’s get on board with the McLaren driver once again. 

Mexican Grand Prix 2024 Odds

Lando Norris to win @ 11/4

If I had to plump for a race winner, it would be Norris once again. I truly believe he will be the fastest in qualifying, and that McLaren and Ferrari are level-pegging in terms of race pace at the moment. This is my third selection for a reason however, and I’d back the other two to come in before this one. 

He just can’t seem to get away from the pack off the line and it is becoming a real issue for him. Having said that, he won in Singapore, came second in Azerbaijan and only missed out on a podium spot last weekend due to that late five-second penalty. He needs race wins to hunt down Verstappen, so let’s back him to be standing on top of the podium in Mexico.

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