Japanese Grand Prix 2026 Predictions: Antonelli to go back-to-back in Mercedes 1-2

You can call it scintillating and dramatic. Or you may see it as artificial and “Mario Kart” – copyright Max Verstappen. But whatever your take on the Formula 1 changes in 2026, the Japanese Grand Prix in Suzuka this weekend will at least guarantee a bunch more overtakes.

Kimi Antonelli’s maiden win in China extended Mercedes’ dominant start, while the rest of the field continues to come to terms with the new power rules in what Fernando Alonso has coined “the battery World Championship”. Below you can find my Japanese Grand Prix 2026 predictions. 

Japanese Grand Prix Odds

Kimi Antonelli Winning Driver @ 7/2

Given the evidence of the opening two races, the Japanese Grand Prix ought to be won by a Mercedes again.

While other teams have struggled with the significant changes in rules so far in 2026, the Brackley-based unit has made hay.

George Russell’s victory in Australia was backed up with a sprint success in China, then Antonelli claimed a first success in the main race which followed.

Meanwhile, Charles Leclerc was bemoaning the lack of power in critical phases of both qualifying and the race when he was attempting to match the Mercedes.

And the likes of Verstappen and Alonso have been vocal about the sport-changing alterations to the power units this season.

So we shouldn’t expect those issues to be countered overnight, with Toto Wolff’s garage likely to produce the two fastest cars once more.

It has been Russell who has been more consistent to this point, but Antonelli was fantastic across the last two days in Shanghai.

The Italian offers the better value at 7/2 for the win compared to Russell’s 8/13, so I’m looking at back-to-back triumphs for the 19-year-old at the more generous price and its implied probability of 22.2%.

F1 Odds

Winning Margin Under 5 Seconds @ 5/4

When one team has the mechanical edge over the rest, competitive racing at the front doesn’t exactly go down to the wire.

I see this being a Mercedes 1-2 regardless of which order they arrive home.

And while Antonelli just about cleared the five-second barrier in China, winning by 5.515, I can well believe the team-mates will be close enough at the chequered flag to bring home the 5/4 bet without it being super-competitive in the latter stages.

Six of the last eight races to finish with any constructor claiming a 1-2 finish have been won by a margin smaller than five seconds, and that ought to be replicated here.