Japanese Grand Prix 2024 Predictions: Ferrari can fly in Japan

The Formula One roadshow heads to Japan this weekend, where Max Verstappen will look to get back to winning ways after his engine failure in Australia. The current world champion saw his Red Bull catch fire in Melbourne which saw him finish pointless for the first time in two years.  

The returning Carlos Sainz took full advantage Down Under to scoop the race win after his surgery, and Ferrari will be desperate to pile the pressure onto Red Bull. Here’s my Japanese Grand Prix 2024 predictions. 

Carlos Sainz podium finish @ EVS

Clearly I am big on Ferrari this season. They are the only ones so far who have come close to matching the pace of the Red Bulls and even though I believe Max Verstappen will probably win this race, there’s simply no value in backing him at 1/5. Also, I would not feel comfortable doing so, given the Red Bull had reliability issues last time out.

Instead I’m happy to be on-board with a man who had the most sensational weekend in Melbourne. We didn’t even know if Carlos Sainz would be able to race until the Friday, after he had his appendix removed. Having missed the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, we didn’t know exactly what shape he would be in just one week later. 

He proved us all wrong, and took a sensational victory in unlikely circumstances. For the second time this season he outperformed his teammate Leclerc, and with the bit between his teeth, he looks like a serious contender this year. Sainz will be replaced by Lewis Hamilton in 2025, and he is doing everything he can to make sure one of the other top teams picks him up. 

He needs a seat next year. I expect another top three finish will put the cat right amongst the pigeons. 

Charles Leclerc fastest lap @ 11/4

Let’s talk about Sainz’s teammate. He’s been there or thereabouts so far this season, finishing fourth, third and second, in that order. He took advantage of Verstappen’s misfortune to finish directly behind Sainz in Australia, and he will have his eyes set on going one better in Japan.

However, Leclerc has shown excellent pace at times, even if he is yet to secure a race win. Although Verstappen dominated in Bahrain, it is Leclerc who has registered the fastest lap in each of the last two races. Even if the Dutchman is leading, it is difficult to post the fastest lap from that position given other drivers can pit for fresh tyres and go all out for the extra point.

I’m happy to side with Charles again at a reasonable price to post his third fastest lap of the season.