Tour de France Stage 8 Predictions: 8/1 and 80/1 picks for Saturday

 | Friday 5th July 2024, 19:40pm

Friday 5th July 2024, 19:40pm

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It ought to be a day for the sprinters again at the Tour de France on Saturday as the riders take on the 183.4km route between Semur-en-Auxois and Colombey-les-deux-Eglises on Stage 8 (live from 11:30 BST on Eurosport 1, 12:00 BST on ITV4).

But any Tour de France Stage 8 predictions need to factor in five categorised climbs which could encourage hill-loving breakaway riders to put some fatigue into the sprint teams’ domestiques and put the cat among the pigeons.

Tour de France Stage 8 Betting Tips

  • Jasper Philipsen @ 8/1
  • Fred Wright E/W @ 80/1

Tour de France Betting Odds

Lotto Dstny's Arnaud De Lie is the favourite for stage eight with Betfred, with his excellent record in one-day events and recent national road race championship success in Belgium making him the 7/2 market leader.  Sprint trio Jasper Philipsen (8/1), Biniam Girmay (10/1) and Mads Pedersen (12/1) come next, with Wout van Aert also at 12/1 after losing a couple of minutes in Friday's time trial. Mathieu van der Poel rounds out the more likely picks at 14/1.

Cycling Odds

You would be forgiven for thinking that this is a big of a feature week for the sprinters given that this is a third potential group dash in the space of four days either side of Friday’s individual time-trial.

But this is the least sprint-friendly of the flat stages on this year’s course, with the two category-three and three cat-four climbs making this a real mixed bag of a stage. Sure, the usual suspects could be going wheel-to-wheel come the end in Colombey-les-deux-Eglises, but this is a much tougher prospect to call than stages five and six.

If Mathieu van der Poel wasn’t pulling extra weight as the principal lead-out man for Alpecin-Deceuninck team-mate Jasper Philipsen I’d say this might be a good day for him to break away as he did at the World Championships in Glasgow last year.

But with Philipsen still winless at the 2024 Tour and in with a good shout of taking this stage if it comes down to a sprint, Van der Poel might not be given the headway to ride ahead.

There could be any number of competitors who fancy their chances of joining a break in this one, with Bahrain-Victorious’ Fred Wright having become known in recent years for his attempts to upset the order.

The 2023 British men’s road race champion also has a date with the Paris Olympics to negotiate, so a big dig at taking a stage – with the publicity a breakaway brings for the team – might be on the cards if an early departure is in sight shortly down the road.

Otherwise, it will be down to the sprint pack – Philipsen, Mark Cavendish, Biniam Girmay, Dylan Groenewegen et al – to battle it out.

Jasper Philipsen @ 8/1

I’m going for a sprint pick and a breakaway choice, given the nature of the stage, and Philipsen can’t be kept down forever.

His demotion in stage six for an irregular sprint denied him a second podium finish of Le Tour this year, and perhaps it showed his frustration and desperation to win a stage as Groenewegen got the jump on him to follow Girmay and Cavendish in recording a first-place finish in sprints.

But I’m going to keep beating this particular drum. Yes, he hasn’t been in the greatest form, yet he remains the star name in the flatter stages, so I fancy him to get off the schneid and this seems as good a time as any.

Jasper Philipsen @ 8/1

Fred Wright E/W @ 80/1

As hard as it is to predict who might go for a breakaway run, let alone whether they can stay out there and hold off the peloton, I can see a small pack backing themselves to make it happen on Saturday.

And if Fred Wright feels up for it, he is as dependable a breakaway rider as there has been on the World Tour over recent years.

If he goes for it, and gets the right kind of teamwork going up the front, he could be a good long shot to be on.

The number of 'ifs' involved justify his 80/1 price, but the implied probability of 1.2% doesn't put me off at that kind of value.

Fred Wright E/W @ 80/1

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.

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