Tour de France Stage 17 Predictions: 5/2 Milan and 20/1 Girmay to battle it out

After a thrilling drag up Mont Ventoux on Tuesday as Valentin Paret-Peintre outduelled Ben Healy, the 2025 Tour de France should see a far more standard Stage 17 on Wednesday as a sprint finish awaits between Bollene and Valence (live from 12:30 BST on TNT Sports 1, 14:00 BST on ITV4).

Since Jasper Philipsen broke his collarbone on stage three, the sprint field has been far more level than anticipated. But as I look at Tour de France Stage 17 predictions it’s worth bearing in mind potential breakaway attempts which could split the peloton all the way to the line.

Tour de France Betting Odds

Tim Merlier is one of just two riders to have recorded multiple stage wins at this year’s Tour to date – Tadej Pogacar, naturally, is the other. And the Soudal Quick-Step man is the big favourite to add a third win to his name.

The Belgian is 1/1 with Betfred to finish first in Valence, with the man in the green jersey, Jonathan Milan, next up at 5/2.

Wout van Aert is 16/1 after pulling quite the shift for the Visma Lease-a-Bike cause up Mont Ventoux on Tuesday, while Jordi Meeus and Biniam Girmay are both available at 20/1.

Cycling Odds

This is a relatively short stage at 160.4km in length, but a couple of category-four climbs will help to tax those looking to tee up a sprint finish.

The first is at the Col du Pertuis, a 3.8-km journey at an average of 6.6%, with the Col du Tartaguille following at 3.5% for 3.6km. But both of those will be in the rear-view mirror with more than 50km still to ride.

With that in mind, there’s a long road for any breaks to see out as teams in the peloton look to reel them in for the sprinters to then do their stuff.

Expect some cat-and-mouse tactics all the way to the final kilometres, with the likelihood being that it comes down to a sprint as they enter Valence.

Jonathan Milan @ 5/2

If there is one man who is going to stop Pogacar from winning the treble of yellow, green and polka-dot jerseys, it will be Jonathan Milan in the points classification.

He’s not had the most convincing of Tours de France so far, with just a single win in Laval in stage eight to his name thus far, which is a lot of the reason why the three-time winner of the maillot jaune is so close to him in the standings for green.

But he could make a huge step forward in that category with a win on Wednesday, and he should be one of the dominant riders when it comes to the finish line, even if he doesn’t get the job done at the intermediate sprint at Roche Saint Secret Beconne 48 kilometres in.

That earlier opportunity for points comes on the way up a non-category climb before the ride up the Col du Pertuis, but the flat terrain in Valence ought to see Milan fighting it out with Merlier and Girmay for the win.

And the Lidl-Trek rider might just have the lead-out team to get him there first, with the 5/2 odds looking far more appealing in the value department than Merlier’s 1/1.

Biniam Girmay E/W @ 20/1

Having won the green jersey behind three stage wins in 2024, plenty was expected of Biniam Girmay ahead of this year’s Tour.

But, so far, the Eritrean has drawn a blank, with his second-place finish behind Philipsen in the Grand Depart in Lille being the closest he has come to taking the tape in this edition.

Other than the return to the traditional Paris climax, this year featuring a trio of trips up to Montmartre, this is the last chance Girmay will have of bagging a sprint victory.

So I believe Intermarche-Wanty will want to get Bini into position to challenge at then line in this one rather than leave it until the final stage to have a dig at claiming a win at this year’s race.

And if Girmay has the right kind of lead-out then he could well bring the sponsors that long-awaited publicity.

Cycling Betting Tips from Betfred Insights.