Tour de France Stage 16 Predictions: 40/1 Woods to repeat 2023 heroics?

Tuesday’s return to the road for stage 16 of the 2025 Tour de France sees the riders take on one of the great symbols of cycling as the limestone-topped ‘Giant of Provence’, the Mont Ventoux marks the finish line for the first time in nine years (live from 11:00 BST on TNT Sports 1, 14:00 BST on ITV4).

While Tadej Pogacar seemingly has a fourth crown in the bag so long as he – cliché alert – stays on the bike, the Slovenian phenom will be aiming for an iconic 22nd career stage win at Le Tour, which would take him to joint-fifth on the all-time list. My Tour de France Stage 16 predictions feature a familiar face taking the honours.

Tour de France Betting Odds

Let’s just say it. Tadej Pogacar will win the stage, hence the 4/9 odds which make a 22nd win, and a fifth of 2025, a 69.2% implied probability.

It’s each-way shots that will provide the value, with 2022 and 2023 champ Jonas Vingegaard a 7/1 shot for Visma Lease-a-Bike, and the truio of Lenny Martinez, Florian Lipowitz and Thymen Arensman at 20/1.

Felix Gall (25/1) and Sepp Kuss (33/1) follow, just ahead of a 40/1 quintet of Matteo Jorgensen, Santiago Buitrago, Ben O’Connor, Michael Woods and Harold Tejada.

Cycling Odds

You don’t need to know the story of Tom Simpson to understand the brutality of Mont Ventoux. You simply need to look at its imposing terrain.

A 15.7-kilometre, 8.8% super-category climb of epic proportions awaits the peloton, and with little else to really speak of prior to hitting the foot of the ‘Bald Mountain’, it might well take a long-range breakaway to stop Pogacar.

He was, of course, exposed for a short time when ascending the Ventoux in 2021 when the Vingegaard gapped him on the second trip of the day up the mountain in Stage 11, only for the Slovenian to make up the difference on the descent into Malaucene.

But most times, it is Pogacar who has the edge when ascending these kinds of terrains, so I will be working on the assumption that Tadej crosses the line first and extends his current lead of four minutes and 13 seconds.

Jonas Vingegaard E/W @ 7/1

Had he been born in any other era, Jonas might be regarded as one of the Tour’s greatest ever cyclists. But having had the misfortune of being thrown up against Tadej Pogacar year after year it is something of a superhuman feat for the Dane to have won two titles in 2022 and 2023.

Right now, he is not at the height of his ability. But he has shown his ability to battle, despite the increasing gap Pogacar has put on him. That stage-five TT disappointment ruled him a very distant second-best early on, and the odd day in which he just hasn’t had the energy has simply underlined the difference between the top two.

But that TT masterclass on stage 13 which finished in Peyragudes showed his guts, as he overtook a flagging Remco Evenepoel in a display of power which helped to make up the Belgian’s mind that it was the rest of the season rather than the rest of the Tour that should now become his focus.

And I can well see Vingegaard doing everything he can to stick with Pogi for as long as possible once again up towards the top of the Mont Ventoux, meaning he has to be a decent shout for a top-three finish at a quarter the 7/1 offering.

Michael Woods E/W @ 40/1

I’m counting on the best of the rest looking to get a head-start on Pogacar and Vingegaard, and few do so better than Michael Woods.

All of the Canadian’s greatest Grand Tour efforts have come in getting in the breakaway pack on tough mountain-top stages, and that was best summed up by his brilliant split early on stage nine two years ago.

His chase down of Matteo Jorgensen in the final kilometre up the Puy de Dome was arguably the highlight of that entire Tour, as Woods joined a 14-man break which eventually broke up into multiple groups. After staying in touch and biding his time, he then burst past the American in the final 450 metres to secure a stunning win.

And it could be a similar tactic which puts him into position to stake a claim on Tuesday. Having failed to make any of his breakaway attempts truly stick so far in 2025’s Tour, this might be his one big chance to have a great say.

So even if he doesn’t quite have the legs to hold off the leading GC pair when the Ventoux gets particularly brutal, Woods may well have more than enough to see off the remaining threats.

At 40/1 he’s a brilliant shout. He normally has a couple of big digs in just these kinds of stages at any Grand Tour he enters, and this ought to be the ideal opportunity to continue that trend.

Cycling Betting Tips from Betfred Insights.