Tour de France Stage 16 Predictions: 11/2 Van Aert a two-pronged threat

This most staggering Tour de France returns on Tuesday after its final rest day, with a weekend of brutal action in the Pyrenees leaving most observers and riders alike hoping for a straight-forward sprint finish on the 188.6km from Gruissan to Nimes (live from 11:30 BST on Eurosport 1, 14:00 BST on ITV4).

There could well be a spanner in the works thanks to likely winds in the Occitanie region which could form splits in the peloton, giving Jonas Vingegaard and Visma-Lease a Bike an opportunity to make the GC battle interesting once more. Here are my Tour de France Stage 16 predictions.

Tour de France Betting Odds

Alpecin-Deceuninck’s sprint king Jasper Philipsen is being well backed to continue his upturn in form after a difficult start to the Tour. The Belgian is the 11/8 favourite for stage 16, with green jersey occupant Biniam Girmay and Visma-Lease a Bike’s Wout van Aert both priced at 11/2.

The newly-crowned Dutch national road-race champion, Dylan Groeneweld, is next at 12/1 having got on the board in stage six, while Pascal Ackermann is 16/1 and Mark Cavendish – winner of a record 35 career Tour wins – is an 18/1 shot.

Cycling Odds

You can see why the sprinters are bunched at the front of the betting market. But for a 30km stretch in the middle of the stage, Tuesday’s profile looks flat and formulaic. It’s even ranked as the fourth-easiest of this year’s 21 stages, a welcome break after the two most difficult of the lot over the weekend.

But that is failing to take into account what the weather might do, with this area of the country notorious for producing the kind of cross-winds which can break the peloton into countless pieces.

That might be what Visma-Lease a Bike will be counting on as they look to drag Vingegaard back into the running after Tadej Pogacar’s dominant weekend, which has given the Slovenian a crucial 3:09 lead in the GC standings.

Pogi was momentarily cut adrift from his UAE Team Emirates contemporaries earlier in the Tour in similar conditions, and unless a technical issue strikes the race leader, Vingegaard will need to pounce on any opportunity he can to rake back some seconds.

If the splits do happen, expect the likes of Vingegaard and Wout van Aert to figure as Visma force the issue. If they don’t, this could be Philipsen’s day again.

Girmay will be in the reckoning at any sprint too, but it feels like Jasper has the edge right now even if it’s likely too late to depose the Eritrean from the green jersey.

This would also normally be a day on which we’d be looking towards Mark Cavendish, but he would probably need three or four rest days to truly get over the toil of reaching Sunday’s sapping stage to Plateau de Beille inside the time limit.

Sure, he’s overcome big days in the mountains to record sprint wins many a time in the past, but this Tour has largely showed that if even one opponent has a lead-out train working for them, Astana-Qazaqstan have found it tough to give Cav a similar leg-up.

Jasper Philipsen @ 11/8

I’ve gone from a Philipsen-heavy first few days, to steering well clear for a week or so, to being back on him whenever the sprint opportunities arrive.

But you can see from his last few sprints (two wins and a fourth) that he has psychologically moved on from a string of second-place heartbreakers earlier in the Tour.

And, even accounting for Cavendish, he is the prime sprinter on the World Tour right now, with a lead-out man in Mathieu van der Poel who should be able to put his teammate into the right position to strike.

Wout van Aert E/W @ 11/2

I’m kind of hedging my bets with this one, since Van Aert could be part of a split breakaway if the winds play havoc or might outsprint the more specialist finishers in a bunch finale.

The Belgian already has five top-six results over the first 15 stages, and if Visma are intent on sitting at the head of the pack for much of the day in case there is a weather-induced break, then he will also be up there alongside Vingegaard.

This might be a day for the all-rounder however the 188.6 kilometres shake out. The 11/2 odds at an implied 15.4% probability do his multifunctionality a disservice, in my mind.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.