Tour de France Stage 12 Predictions: 7/1 for Girmay hat-trick

 | Wednesday 10th July 2024, 20:39pm

Wednesday 10th July 2024, 20:39pm

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Thursday’s continuation of the 2024 Tour de France provides another day primed for sprinters on the 203.6km route from Aurillac to Villeneuve-sur-Lot (live from 11:00 BST on Eurosport 1, 14:00 BST on ITV4), with the battle for yellow being parked for now following Wednesday’s epic stage involving the top four GC contenders.

Stage 12 takes us to the west of France as the race gets set for its Pyrenean leg over the weekend. And with four of the big sprint candidates having all won already in this year’s event, my Tour de France Stage 12 predictions won’t be straying far from that group after seeing Remco Evenepoel justify my backing on Wednesday.

Tour de France Stage 12 Betting Tips

  • Biniam Girmay @ 7/1
  • Arnaud De Lie E/W @ 16/1

Tour de France Betting Odds

Having finally got on to the winner’s podium on Tuesday in stage 10, Jasper Philipsen is a huge favourite to back up with a second success on Thursday. Betfred have him at 11/10, while record stage-winner Mark Cavendish is alongside Biniam Girmay and Dylan Groenewegen as co-second favourites at 7/1.

Arnaud De Lie is 16/1 to earn his first Tour win with Lotto Dstny, with Pascal Ackermann and Fernando Gaviria both 22/1.

Cycling Odds

Jonas Vingegaard’s stunning, emotional win on Wednesday in a first ever two-up sprint loss for Tadej Pogacar injected even greater intrigue into an already-stunning Tour de France. The foxtrot beat of ‘slow, slow, quick, quick, slow’ that has been the 2024 event means the next episode of the soap opera between the two double Tour champs will have to wait.

Yet Thursday carries its own storyline as the well-spread sprint contest resumes. This is far from the most straightforward stage of the race this year, but the fact that most of the 2200m of elevation comes in the first half of the day tells you that we’ll be left either with a breakaway or a sixth bunch sprint in the opening couple of weeks.

Only on the opening stage has a breakaway held so far in 2024, when Frank van den Broek went solo for most of the day, then was joined for the final 50km by DSM-Firmenich teammate Romain Bardet, who was allowed to take the tape at the end in his final Tour.

So, while the law of averages suggests there ought to be another successful escape at some point, I can see the usual suspects being led into position for the rather technical finish in Villeneuve-sur-Lot.

There are a couple of sharp bends and a smattering of roundabouts to negotiate before the run-in from the Flamme Rouge, leaving whoever survives that far to slog it out to the finish.

Biniam Girmay @ 7/1

The only repeat winner on the Tour so far, Girmay is the man to beat in the Points Classification but also has that clear taste for success. With two wins, two seconds and two ninths, he’s never been far from the shake-up, and I can see him being a danger again.

While Jasper Philipsen is the obvious candidate, and one I’ve plumped for more than once, his 11/10 odds are prohibitive in my search for value. I also don’t think everything is fixed with the Belgian’s form just off the back of that one day.

And it is Girmay who has seemed the more convincing for much of this Tour so far, so I don’t mind giving him my backing to get a third stage win of the year at an implied probability of 12.5%.

Biniam Girmay @ 7/1

Arnaud De Lie E/W @ 16/1

Not put off by his failure to bring in the each-way bet on Tuesday, I’m giving De Lie another nod at even longer odds this time than his 10/1 in stage 10.

The youngster has ridden with real character thus far, and his four top-five finishes have proven his ability to get in amongst it. While he found himself off the back of the pack on Tuesday – alongside Cavendish, no less – I think he’ll be back in with a shout coming in to Villeneuve-sur-Lot.

He’s definitely a decent each-way shout.

Arnaud De Lie E/W @ 16/1

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.

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