Tour de France Stage 11 Predictions: Pogacar seeking a statement in GC battle

 | Tuesday 9th July 2024, 21:42pm

Tuesday 9th July 2024, 21:42pm

Tadej Pogacar Jonas Vingegaard

After a string of sprinters’ days interrupted only by a time trial, a gravel circuit and a rest day, finally the 2024 Tour de France returns to the mountains on Wednesday on the 211km trip between Evaux-Les-Bains and Le Lioran (live from 10:00 BST on Eurosport 1, 10:15 BST on ITV4).

There could, therefore, be a bit of rare movement in the top 10 as the leading GC contenders get to make a statement once more. My Tour de France Stage 11 predictions include familiar enough names.

Tour de France Stage 11 Betting Tips

  • Tadej Pogacar @ 7/2
  • Remco Evenepoel E/W @ 18/1

Tour de France Betting Odds

Unsurprisingly, it is Tadej Pogacar who is being most heavily backed to win Stage 11, priced at 7/2, with EF Education-EasyPost's Richard Carapaz next in the betting at 10/1. Carapaz's Irish teammate Ben Healy is 16/1, while a trio of big names, Remco Evenepoel, Jonas Vingegaard and Tom Pidcock are all at 18/1.

Cycling Odds

Stage 11 takes us to the Massif Central region on the way south towards the Pyrenees, with a series of testing climbs, most notably four of them in the final 50km heading for Le Lioran ski resort.

There are two category-two climbs, one Cat 3, and the sharp 5.4km ride up the Puy Mary Pas de Peyrol at 8.1% all in the final quarter of Wednesday’s stage, giving plenty of opportunity for Tadej Pogacar for launch those trademark little attacks to shake off his GC rivals.

The UAE Team Emirates rider might well have the yellow jersey on his back right now, but the gap of just 33 seconds to Tour debutant Remco Evenepoel and 1:15 to two-time defending champ Jonas Vingegaard make the opportunity to put some distance between him and the best of the rest tantalising.

He will especially want to put Vingegaard at greater distance, with the common consensus having been that the great Dane would struggle early on in the race due to his long lay-off with a punctured lung, broken collarbone and shattered ribs.

Jonas’ contention right now says much for his resilience, and Pogacar hasn’t become the champion he is by resting on his laurels. So that should make Wednesday’s a magnificently compelling stage.

Tadej Pogacar @ 7/2

It's the obvious choice, but then he's clearly the man to beat. The 2020 and 2021 Tour champion has showed countless times already this year in the Giro d'Italia and most recently on the climb up the Col du Galibier in stage four of this race that he is currently untouchable in the mountains.

Most of his trademark performances have come on days exactly like the one that lays ahead in the centre of France, and it would take a fool to overlook him. In the circumstances, 7/2 is a decent price even considering it's a hilly stage. They are odds that imply a 22.2% chance of victory, but this could be a huge day in this year's GC battle.

Tadej Pogacar @ 7/2

Remco Evenepoel E/W @ 18/1

If the brilliant Belgian is to have any hope of finishing the race in yellow in Nice on Sunday week, he needs to do what he can to stay with Pogacar on the climbs.

Sure, he is likely to take a chunk of time out of the Slovenian on the time trial which provides the final chapter in this year's race, but the longer he can keep the gap as narrow as 33 seconds, the better.

He has proved before that he has the maverick qualities to make things happen on the hills, with his 2022 win of La Vuelta a Espana and even his King of the Mountains success in last year's edition showing what power he has in his legs when others are crumbling.

The caveat on that 2023 effort is that he had already lost his way in the GC race when he took it upon himself to boss a couple of later mountain stages as he sailed home in the polka-dot jersey competition, but the point remains. If he's feeling strong on Wednesday, he could set the cat among the pigeons.

Remco Evenepoel E/W @ 18/1

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.

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