Tour de France Stage 10 Predictions: More Cav magic in Saint-Amand-Montrond?

 | Monday 8th July 2024, 14:54pm

Monday 8th July 2024, 14:54pm

Mark Cavendish

After the first rest day of the 2024 Tour de France, competition resumes on Tuesday when the riders take on the 187.3km Stage 10 from Orleans to Saint-Amand-Montrond (live from 12:00 BST on Eurosport 1, 14:00 BST on ITV4).

On the face of it, this should come down to the sprinters once more, but the exposed countryside could see echelons form, while a short climb in the final 10km might cause late drama. That said, my Tour de France Stage 10 predictions won’t be foreseeing too many surprises.

Tour de France Stage 10 Betting Tips

  • Mark Cavendish @ 3/1
  • Arnaud De Lie E/W @ 10/1

Tour de France Betting Odds

Jasper Philipsen is still searching for his first win of the Tour this year and is 6/4 favourite to get it done in Saint-Amand-Montrond on Tuesday. Record stage-win holder Mark Cavendish is 3/1, stage-six winner Dylan Groeneweld 7/2 and Biniam Girmay – the only rider to record multiple victories so far – is 6/1.

It’s 10/1 for Lotto Dstny’s Arnaud De Lie to pick up his first win on his Tour de France debut.

Cycling Odds

Stage 10 throws up a few little question marks for the favourites in the sprint, with regular changes in direction in the Centre-Val de Loire region potentially bringing the wind into play.

Then there’s a short, sharp climb late on which could disrupt the otherwise-straightforward charge towards the finish line. And in the final kilometre there arrives a series of sharp corners as the riders hang left, then right, then left again before the 500-metre sprint for home.

That finale could cause some chaos, with lead-out trains potentially battling it out for positional superiority before those bends. And if anything happens out of the ordinary, that last half-kilometre might well be a free-for-all with sprinters needing to make things up as they go along.

It was at the same finish line that Cavendish celebrated one of his 35 stage wins in the Tour, back in 2013. That time around Alejandro Valverde suffered a puncture just as other GC contenders were making the most of a split caused by cross-winds, and the Spaniard’s yellow-jersey hopes effectively ended there and then.

So you have been warned, this could be a big day of Le Tour action.

Mark Cavendish @ 3/1

Who revels in spontaneity more than Cavendish? He showed when taking his record-breaking victory in stage five that his instincts are the best in the business when the finish line is in sight.

And if the closing stages do bend a few teams out shape, it would be hard to back against Cav being the one to make the most of it.

There is always the spectre of Jasper Philipsen and his drive to finally pick up a first win after three second-place finishes, but at 6/4 I’m willing to overlook that as a possibility and go all in on the Manx Missile.

Mark Cavendish @ 3/1

Arnaud De Lie E/W @ 10/1

He might not have won a stage yet, but Belgium’s Arnaud De Lie has been one of the stand-out stories of the 2024 Tour so far.

With four top-five finishes, including two thirds, he has so often been a contender. Indeed, he is the only rider to have featured in the reckoning of all four flat stages so far, with even two-stage winner Biniam Girmay fading into ninth at Saint-Vulbas in stage five.

Having figured so highly so often, I can see the 22-year-old Lotto Dstny rider making a dash for a victory here just a couple of weeks on from winning the Belgian national road-race title. He's 10/1, implying a 9.1% probability, but I make him a better bet than that.

Arnaud De Lie E/W @ 10/1

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.

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