Tour de France 2026 Predictions: Pogacar to join the pantheon of greats in 8/1 pick

Tadej Pogacar sets out to officially become one of the greatest riders in Tour de France history on Saturday when the 2026 event begins.

The Slovenian superstar is gunning for a fifth career Tour title, which would equal the record jointly held by Miguel Indurain, Bernard Hinault, Eddy Merckx and Jacques Anquetil. Here are my Giro d’Italia 2026 predictions, a full race preview and Betfred’s latest odds.

Tour de France Betting Odds

Pogacar is the obvious runaway favourite, with Betfred slating him as a 2/7 chance. Two-time champion Jonas Vingegaard is 7/2, and exciting young French star Paul Seixas is 9/1.

Beyond them, Isaac Del Toro is 16/1 and Remco Evenepoel 20/1.

What about the other classifications? Well, Pogacar is the 11/10 favourite for the King of the Mountains grouping, while Jasper Philipsen is best-backed to win the green jersey for picking up the most points in sprints. He’s 7/4.

Seixas and Del Toro are 11/8 apiece for the Young Rider classification which wins you the white jersey, while Betfred have a Pogacar vs The Field market. It’s 5/2 for anybody other than the Slovenian to win the GC.

GC Straight Tricast: 1st Pogacar, 2nd Vingegaard, 3rd Evenepoel @ 8/1

The Pogacar pick here is pretty obvious. So too Jonas to finish second.

Pogi is simply untouchable right now, and the cliché normally says that he “just has to stay on the bike”. Yet so often he can come off the thing and still win races, as his ride at the Milano-San Remo underlined.

He has also lost by a grand total of just 11 seconds over 16 days of racing in 2026, with 11 wins to his name and very narrow placings coming in the rest of his action.

Vingegaard is coming off the back of his first career win at the Giro d’Italia, which completed a career treble. As with every year at the Tour, he is Pogacar’s biggest rival. The pair have finished 1-2 in every edition since 2021.

Evenepoel is the questionable one in this pick, with his only Grand Tour win coming nearly four years ago at the Vuelta a Espana. Since then, he has had difficulty sticking with the bigger names in the major stage races.

And the presence of the Col du Tourmalet in this year’s event casts further doubt over the Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe rider’s chances. It was a journey up the same mountain at the 2023 Vuelta which shattered his hopes of defending his crown, having initially fallen back on the climb up the Col d’Aubisque earlier in the stage.

Then 12 months ago he looked set to challenge for back-to-back podium positions at the Tour de France until coming a cropper going up the Tourmalet on Stage 14 and abandoning the contest.

But there’s something about the Belgian, who is the reigning double Olympic champion. And if he can start well in the Team Time-Trial and stick around the front of the pack in the opening week, then he should have the backing of his teammates – including Florian Lipowitz – in the key moments in the second half of the race.

He has the fizz and the fire, and while I can’t wait to see what Seixas can offer at his first Tour, Evenepoel has been here before over a full three-week race. I think 8/1 is a tasty bet for the brash Belgian to join the two stand-out riders on the podium.

Cycling Odds

King of the Mountains: Richard Carapaz @ 4/1

This category ought to be a two-horse race. EF Education-EasyPost’s Carapaz has already written off any hope of challenging for the maillot jaune, so stage wins and mountain points will be the order of the day for the Ecuadorian.

He won the polkadot jersey in 2024, joining six notable breakaways and collecting one stage win up to SuperDevoluy in the process. Last year, with no Carapaz in the race, Pogacar doubled up to take the KOM crown. And the four-time GC winner is favourite to do the same again.

But Carapaz is the outstanding mountain-focused rider in the peloton when he makes that his focus, and if he’s out of the GC running early then he will be allowed a longer leash to ride ahead of the pack when the high-terrain stages truly kick in.

That’s why the 4/1 about Carapaz could end up looking more and more punter-friendly by the day.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.