Strade Bianche Predictions: Skujins the smart bet on Pogacar’s playground

One of the greatest sights of any cycling season is that of a star-studded field making its way over the dusty Tuscan gravel of the Strade Bianche. And, in two of the last three years, we’ve seen the incredible Tadej Pogacar storm to victory in the Piazza del Campo in Siena.

So while the 2025 event on Saturday might seem like a foregone conclusion in terms of result, there are still a million reasons to watch and good value to be found deeper in the betting than the Slovenian superstars obvious favouritism. My Strade Bianche predictions will steer away from saying what we all think about the likely winner.

Any cycling aficionado has their favourite race, and this one might well be mine. There’s a good reason why gravel stages are regularly added to Grand Tour routes, with the spectacle of dust-covered riders juddering their way over pebbly terrain providing a thrilling break from the norm.

There’s just something captivating about the Strade Bianche, and even when 63 kilometres of dirt road have been accounted for across 11 different sectors, the setting of the finish at the picturesque Piazza del Campo is also a delight.

And when the greatest rider in the world today is making the whole course his own little playground, it kind of adds to the magic too.

Tadej Pogacar @ 2/7

Look, I’m not saying you should back Pogacar, I’m just saying he’ll win. The 26-year-old’s last two visits to this event have ended with him stop atop the winner’s podium, with his dazzling 82-kilometre breakaway 12 months ago really setting out his stall for the 2024 season.

What followed was nothing short of wizardry, with Grand Tour successes at the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France, leaving many to wonder whether he should have attended La Vuelta a Espana in August to become the first ever winner of the Triple Crown in a single year.

Instead, he focused on the World Championships in Zurich and inevitably won there, leaving the competition in his wake 101km from home.

So, there’s simply nothing to suggest he isn’t going to add another notable one-day title to his ever-expanding palmares, especially when considering the likes of Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel and Mathieu van der Poel are not present. I just can’t get behind backing him at 2/7. Sure, I’d be willing to stick my own money on it, but tipping is all about finding value too…

Toms Skujins each-way @ 18/1

With that in mind, I find Toms Skujins to be a tempting each-way chance. He was second to Pogacar over the white roads this time last year, and his is a career arc which underlines an ability to challenge in one-day events and on breakaway days at stage races.

It might be the view of many that Tom Pidcock is the best shout to challenge Pogacar on Saturday, with his transfer from Ineos Grenadiers to Q36.5 Racing in the off-season having borne fruit with his victory in the UAE Tour in February.

But at 8/1 the Brit doesn’t offer a great amount of value, and in any case the Latvian is the more likely to stay with Pogi in my mind.

The Lidl-Trek rider seems to be finding his best groove at a relatively late stage in his career. At 33, he’s seven years older than Pogacar, eight older than Pidcock and his five further on than Vingegaard. But look at some of his results of late.

Beyond his second at Strade Bianche last year, he also tallied his best ever finish at the World Championships (fourth), the Olympics (fifth) and the Grand Prix of Montreal (sixth), while also having a big say in a couple of notable breakaway efforts at Le Tour.

Having admitted earlier in his career that he was still working out what sort of rider he was, he now finally seems like a rider who can compete with the best in Classics such as this one with reasonable regularity.

His 18/1 price implies a 5.3% chance of winning, and the each-way derivation of that looks handy to me given his recent record.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.