Milan-San Remo 2025 Predictions: 7/2 shot for Pogacar to miss out for once

Tadej Pogacar’s increasing dominance of men’s cycling ought to be put to the test on Saturday when he aims to win the Spring Classic at Milan-San Remo for the first time in his otherwise-glittering career.

The Slovenian great has three top-five finishes to his name at this event, peaking with a third-place return last year behind first-time winner Jasper Philipsen. But there’s good reason to believe he’ll be foiled again, as you’ll see from My Milan-San Remo 2025 predictions.

This year’s race again comes as the first of the five Monuments in the cycling calendar, and the field is reflective of the status it holds in the sport.

The likes of 2023 World Road-Race champion Mathieu van der Poel, sprint king Biniam Girmay, one-day superstar Tom Pidcock and reigning champ Philipsen will all be out to have a say in bringing down Pogacar, and for once I’m backing against the three-time Tour de France champion.

The course of the Milan-San Remo doesn’t really play into Pogi’s hands. Why? Well, it’s just not tough enough. As he proved in his brilliant comeback win at Strade Bianche recently, he revels on roads that others find difficult, even managing to chase down Pidcock after a fairly horrific-looking crash.

While the route is not entirely straight-forward, the biggest climb at the Cat 4 Passo del Turchino with its 2.3km 5.3% test comes 150 kilometres from home in the 291km race, which is far too far out to be a race-winner.

In the latter stages come the ‘Tre Capi’ of Mele, Cervo and Berta, then the speedy, twisting climb of the Cipressa and then the Poggio, but on none of them has Pogacar ever been able to leave the rest of the peloton behind. Even last year when he managed to split the race open, Van der Poel quickly reeled him in and they just couldn’t avoid it becoming a sprint to the line, which favoured Philipsen.

Mathieu van der Poel @ 7/2

It’s with the above in mind that I’m backing against Pogacar. And in Van der Poel we have a man who has proven his versatility in one-day events.

A former winner of this race in 2023, he went on to win the World Championships in Glasgow that same year when breaking solo 16km from home and has several other classics titles to his name including the Strade Bianche, the Amstel Gold Race and back-to-back victories at Paris-Roubaix.

All of which is to say that he is a safe bet as a big-time competitor for this one, especially as I can see Pogacar making a concerted effort to shake off the field in his bid to finally win in San Remo.

If that happens, Van der Poel has as much chance as anyone of sticking to the UAE Team Emirates rider’s wheel, as he proved last year, and that would mean potentially helping both of them to shake off a pure sprint finish in which neither would be a favourite.

It would also take away any need for the Dutchman to help form a lead-out of sorts for Alpecin-Deceuninck teammate Philipsen, which would massively weigh against our bet if there was a mini-bunch heading for home with both involved.

The 7/2 odds imply a 22.2% probability of Van der Poel coming out on top again, and this is the one race of the year where I’m fairly confident in saying Pogacar is definitely beatable.

Filippo Ganna each-way @ 7/1

A time-trial specialist though he may be, I have Ineos Grenadiers’ Ganna to be a hope in this one.

He’s a big lover of the roads in his home nation, and came second in this race just two years ago behind Van der Poel. Of his seven Giro d’Italia stage wins, one of the two not to come in individual TTs came when joining a breakaway from 177km out and outlasting the field into Camigliatello Silano back in 2020.

If he can still be in it at the end, he has already proved that he has the pace on the Poggio to cause trouble in the latter stages. Had it not been for an unfortunately-placed pothole then he might have won this race 12 months ago after setting a Strava record on the Poggio.

He also is in great form so far this year having finished second on GC at the Tirreno-Adriatico, and the feeling is that he will have Ineos’ team orders in his favour.

I like the 7/1 for him, and with 1/4 the odds for a top-three finish I’m taking the each-way route for a man who looks ready for a real statement performance.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.