La Vuelta Stage 9 Predictions: Roglic set for Sunday strike in GC battle

With stage 8 having gone pretty much as we’d expected, it’s time for La Vuelta Stage 9 predictions ahead of Sunday’s final day of action before the event’s first rest day (live on Eurosport 1 from 13:30 BST, highlights at 20:00).

There will be three Category 1 climbs negotiated on the 178.5km between Motril and Granada, with the last two being up the Alto de Hazallanas as part of a demanding loop section before a 22km descent to the finish.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

Primoz Roglic is the big favourite to go back-to-back after his victory on Saturday, priced at 11/8 to rack up a third win before the first rest day. That's an implied probability of 42.1%.

Enric Mas, who he just beat out in Cazorla, is the 6/1 second favourite and reigning champion Sepp Kuss is 12/1. Then comes Mikel Landa (14/1) before breakaway chance Richard Carapaz and Lotto Dstny's Lennert van Eetvelt at 20/1 each.

Cycling Odds

The final stage of the first week of racing at La Vuelta a Espana takes the riders around the western side of the Sierra Nevada mountain range, taking in some punishing ascents on the north-west edge of the famous peaks. Some of the competitors have this one down as the race's 'Queen Stage'.

The three Cat 1 climbs are serious bruisers, with the first – the Puerto de el Purche – potentially either tempting breakaway riders or biting them in the bum, depending on how the GC contenders are feeling on the 8.9km drag at an average 7.6% gradient. There’s even a stretch of around one kilometre at which the gain is 17%.

The second and third of the day’s mountain climbs are both up the same route of the Alto de Hazallanas. This has to be where the stage will be won and lost, with the 20% slopes in the first few kilometres really set to throw the cat among the pigeons.

Even after the gradient tapers off slightly, it’s still way beyond the average 9.6% for another couple of Ks thereafter as part of the 7.1km beast. Doing it once might test much of the peloton. Doing it twice will test absolutely every one of them.

But that is why Roglic is the favourite here. He is the outstanding GC hope, even with his 3:49 deficit to Ben O’Connor, with his clawing back of 56 seconds with regular digs in the last 4km on Saturday showing that he is still the man to beat. It is on stages like this that leaders’ jerseys are won and lost.

Primoz Roglic @ 11/8

Had Primoz still been in red, this might be a day on which he would play things more conservatively. But his Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe team will instead be intent on driving further seconds – and maybe even minutes – out of O’Connor’s lead.

That stunning stage-six win for the Australian has changed the whole look of this race for now, but if Roglic has one of his days here, then we might see him back at the top of the podium sooner than you may have thought.

Stages immediately prior to rest days can often see riders going all out, and there is nothing stopping the big race favourite from leaving almost everything out there on the way to Granada. If he doesn’t go for it on the first trip up to the Alto de Hazallanas, he’ll likely do so on the second one.

As I said on my Stage 8 prediction piece, Roglic at 11/10 for the GC title was something to be snapped up, and he’s now 4/9 after his win at Cazorla. A good day on Sunday, and he’ll be shorter than ever for a fourth La Vuelta success. 

Mikel Landa E/W @ 14/1

While Kuss has to be a contender here given the extent of the climbs, I wouldn’t be completely surprised to see an identical 1-2-3 to Saturday’s stage, as this might be a bit too much for any wannabe breakaway riders.

Enric Mas is too short for me to bother with an each-way pick, so I’m going with Mikel Landa to finish top three.

As a Grand Tour veteran who always has something to say for himself on the bike, the Soudal-Quick Step rider is a real threat. He finished fifth on GC at the Tour de France this summer, matching his return at the Vuelta this time last year, and finished third at the Giro d’Italia two years ago.

He’s not the first name that comes to mind for a series of Cat 1 climbs, but I fancy his chances on Sunday.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.