La Vuelta Stage 8 Predictions: Philipsen and Pedersen set for sprint battle

Into the second weekend we go at the 2025 Vuelta a Espana, and on Saturday it’s a much-needed sprinters’ stage following consecutive days of high mountains and summit finishes (live on TNT Sports 3 from 13:30 BST, highlights at 22:15).

The 163.5km route from Monzon Templario on Stage 8 has not one categorised climb and ends with a 23km-loop around the city of Zaragoza. My La Vuelta Stage 8 predictions are below and will consider some of the biggest names in sprinting.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

Saturday’s parcours is not completely flat. But with just 1219 vertical metres to cover, the vast majority of the course is either downhill or pancake-like. From around 300 metres above sea level at the flag-drop to nearer 200 at the finish line, this is definitely a stage which should see the sprint trains dominate as we reach Zaragoza.

Jasper Philipsen is the obvious favourite, and he was the winner in the only previous out-and-out sprint of La Vuelta so far back at the Grand Depart a week ago from Turin to Novara. He was then beaten to the line by Ineos Grenadiers’ Ben Turner at Voiron on Tuesday in a flat finish but that followed over 3000 vertical metres of climbing.

His main threat ought to be Mads Pedersen, although the Dane did expend a lot of effort in Friday’s stage to Cerler when joining the breakaway to secure the full points in the intermediate sprint.

While he was successful in extending his lead in the green jersey standings, he has previously achieved a top-10 finish in just 53% of sprints following a climbing stage according to procyclingstats.com.

That could help to offer hope to some of the other sprint specialists, with Ethan Vernon and Casper van Uden among those worthy of consideration.

Philipsen is the 4/5 favourite for the stage with Betfred, with Vernon at 7/2. He’s ahead of Pedersen in the betting perhaps because of that uncertainty over the Lidl-Trek rider’s ability to back up a mountain day.

Van Uden is a 10/1 chance with Turner 14/1 to add a second stage victory.

Cycling Odds

Jasper Philipsen @ 4/5

You’ve got to believe that Alpecin-Deceuninck get the job done this time. In that sole stage finish in France on Tuesday, they didn’t quite get their ducks in a row, and Edward Planckaert couldn’t find the juice to kick on while Philipsen failed to read his team-mate’s struggle and didn’t go early enough as Turner got the jump for the line.

But they rarely get things so wrong twice in quick succession when it comes to leading out the great Belgian sprinter.

Thirteen of his 14 career Grand Tour stage wins have come since his move from UAE Team Emirates, and not just because he has matured and worked and become a better cyclist but also because Alpecin have put the weapons around him to help him to succeed.

What happened in stage four ought not to be repeated, and I’d be hugely surprised not to see him raising his arms in Zaragoza.

Mads Pedersen E/W @ 8/1

Despite what I’ve said about his issues backing up, I believe 8/1 is too long a price for Mads.

With 10 Grand Tour stage wins to his name, he is no slouch. Sure, he’s not Jasper Philipsen, but he will definitely back himself to push the favourite all the way.

Just as Juan Ayuso’s ride to victory on Friday felt like proof of a point after his collapse 24 hours earlier, Pedersen knows there are questions being asked about his recovery powers. And on this reasonably straightforward stage I think he gets the lead-out he needs to at least have Philipsen worried come the finish line.

Get him on the each-way chance, since I reckon he’s a big hope of a top-three result.