La Vuelta Stage 8 Predictions: Big day ahead for chasing Roglic

Knowing full well that he will have to take a few chances between now and the end of this year’s La Vuelta a Espana, a big day lies ahead for Primoz Roglic on Saturday’s Stage 8 as he looks to take a chunk out of Ben O’Connor lead (live on Eurosport 1 from 13:30 BST, highlights at 20:00).

The 159km route from Ubeda to Cazorla is a fascinating in-between stage. It’s not of the will-breaking mountain variety, but is still tough enough that only those who would count themselves among the GC favourites and true climbers stand a chance. My La Vuelta Stage 8 predictions foresee a real battle.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

Roglic is the favourite to win this one, with his need to gain something before the odd time bonus on the race leader being key even this early on in proceedings. The Slovenian is 5/2, with Lotto Dstny’s Lennert van Eetvelt next up at 5/1 having only just lost out to Roglic on stage four up to Pico Villuercas.

Enric Mas can be got at 10/1, with UAE Team Emirates’ Joao Almeida 12/1 to kick his Vuelta campaign into gear. Israel-Premier Tech’s Michael Woods is 16/1, with Giulio Ciccone available at 20/1. Breakaway specialist Richard Carapaz is one of four priced at 25/1, the others being Jhonatan Narvaez, Matthew Riccitello and two-time stage winner Wout van Aert.

Cycling Odds

Ben O’Connor epic breakaway win on stage six has intensified every mountain stage for the remainder of the Vuelta, with all eyes on the big favourite Roglic. Now might be the time to have a punt on the Slovenian if you still believe in him to pull back the 4:45 deficit, as he is currently 11/10 with Betfred to overhaul the gap.

As for Saturday, this ought to be a day for him to chip away slightly at the Australian’s lead. He clawed back six seconds in the intermediate sprint on Friday, but this is the first opportunity since O’Connor’s heroics for Roglic to really respond.

There’s no great time-splitting feature to speak of in this stage until 97km in, when the riders begin the climb up the Cat 2 Puerto Mirador de las Palomas, a 7.3km drag at an average 5.7%.

That should break the field up a little bit, but there are still almost 50km between there and the beginning of the ascent up the Sierra de Cazorla, which provides the mountain-top finish to the stage. It’s a 4.8km ride up that one at a 7.1% average.

It might be that Roglic will save any attacks for that final climb and hope to take what he can, regardless of whether he’s at the front of the race at that point or just leading the peloton behind any opportunistic breakaway which fancies its chances of staying strong beyond the earlier Cat 2.

Primoz Roglic @ 5/2 

I reckon Roglic is going to be there or thereabouts. He kind of has to be in any stage such as this for as long as O’Connor has the advantage in the GC standings.

To that end, given that he’s a fairly short-odds favourite and I’m not in the game of tipping each-way bets at 5/2, I back him to make a bit of a statement and take the stage victory and a minute or so of time back. The odds imply a 28.6% chance of him winning, but I make that slightly on the low side.

Michael Woods E/W @ 16/1

This is not the archetypal Michael Woods kind of stage really. It’s certainly no Puy de Dome, up which he won at the 2023 Tour de France – his only Grand Tour stage win in the last four years.

But I just feel that he’s feeling his way into this race. He’s got a big stage or two in him at some point and mountain-top finishes suit his style. There’s not another one after this until next Thursday up to the Estacion de Montana de Manzaneda in stage 12, so this might be a day on which he fancies seeing what’s in his legs.

The 16/1 makes him a tempting each-way bet at the very least.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.