La Vuelta Stage 6 Predictions: Thursday is all about 11/2 Wout

Stage 6 of this year’s La Vuelta a Espana sees the peloton take a trip up the mountains again on Thursday, with Primoz Roglic set for a big day in his quest to retain the red jersey (live on Eurosport 1 from 13:30 BST, highlights at 20:00).

It’s a punishing 185.5km parcours between Jerez de la Frontera and Yunquera, this one, with a Cat 1 climb followed by three further mountains of slightly less troublesome demeanour individually but which will ask serious questions as a combination. Here are my La Vuelta Stage 6 predictions.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

As the race leader, Roglic is naturally among the favourites, but this one might not be quite undulating enough and he’s joint-third favourite alongside Lotto Dstny’s Andreas Kron at 12/1.

Instead, it’s Wout van Aert at 11/2 who has been backed in from 8/1 having come so close to a second win of the Vuelta on Wednesday.

Next up, Jhonatan Narvaez of Ineos Grenadiers is 8/1, while Marco Schmid is at 20/1, the same price as Mathias Vacek. Climbing specialist Giulio Ciccone is 25/1, as the mountains might not being quite demanding enough to shake off some of the other contenders.

Cycling Odds

I love the look of this stage, as we could be in for a really good day’s racing. After a couple of lumps that are worthy of little mention comes a 14.7km climb up the Cat 1 Puerto del Boyar at an average gradient of 5.5%. It includes a 5km stretch of consistent 7-8% slopes which will really test the peloton.

After staggered descents totalling around 600 metres, they start to climb once more ahead of the sole intermediate sprint of the day which precedes the Cat 3 Puerto del Vineto, a 6.6km climb at 4.2%. It’s nothing compared to the Boyar but might be enough to start to aggregate the lethargy and cause more splits in the pack.

There’s a couple more Cat 3s after that. With 30km to go they’ll tackle the Puerto Martinez (3.5km at 5.9%), which is probably the most disruptive of the three more minor climbs. Then comes the mountain-top finish at the Alto de las Abejas, covering the last 8.9km at an average 3.9%.

It’s a tricky enough route that it will be climbers alone who should be in contention, but it’s not so difficult that only the very top group of mountain specialists will carry any hope.

That’s what brings all-rounders like Wout van Aert into play alongside the big GC hopes

Wout van Aert @ 11/2

This is the kind of stage on which Van Aert should thrive. The Visma-Lease a Bike star has found it hard to shake off Kaden Groves on sprint days without playing into the hands of others, while he doesn’t have the legs to take on the very biggest mountain stages.

But on a stage such as Thursday’s, with enough elevation to call it a mountain stage but without it really appealing to guys of the make-up of a Richard Carapaz or Giulio Ciccone, this is where he’s really got something extra.

After finally claiming a first win in six months on Monday’s stage three, he might only take three days to get his next one.

Jhonatan Narvaez E/W @ 8/1

Narvaez is another that this kind of stage is made for. He can definitely stick with the leaders over the Cat 1 then maintain a high pace through the Cat 3s in order to reduce the field late on.

A one-day race king and master of this sort of terrain, he might well be the man to bring the Ineos Grenadiers a first win of this year’s La Vuelta. His 8/1 odds imply an 11.1% chance of winning, and at ¼ the price for 1-2-3, I’ll happily put my weight behind him.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.