La Vuelta Stage 4 Predictions: 9/2 Philipsen to have final say in France?

The final day of action outside of Spain in the 2025 Vuelta a Espana is also the longest of the event, as Tuesday’s 206.7km Stage 4 takes the peloton from Susa in northern Italy to Voiron in southern France (live on TNT Sports 3  from 12:45 BST, highlights at 22:00).

This one is a tough day to judge, with its three categorised climbs all coming in the first one-third of the course and a mix of flat and downhill parcours dominating the last 130km. My La Vuelta Stage 4 predictions follow, with the sprinters in the mix.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

We saw on Monday that the peloton wasn’t willing to let the breakaway get too far ahead, but then there was only one categorised climb and the stage lasted little more than 130km once they’d got to the twice-delayed salida lanzada.

On Tuesday we may see a break get a bit more time and space ahead of the pack than the two-minute best on the road to Ceres, but with so much of the last half of the action being fought out on forgiving terrain it will be tough to set a pace the main bunch cannot chase down.

Those early categorised climbs won’t be straightforward, mind. The first is a category-three effort at the Fort of Exilles, a 5.6km drag at an average of 5.6%.

Then they get tougher. There’s a Cat 2 Alpine climb at the Col de Montgenevre, where the riders taken on 8.3km at 6.1%, and lastly they reach the highest altitude of the day at the top of the Col de Lautaret after a 13.8km journey at a 4.3% gradient.

All of that should be enough to form a few splits were those climbs in the latter half of the day’s proceedings. But it will be interesting to see how many teams are willing to send multiple riders up the road with still so much racing to come once they hit the peak of the Lautaret.

Mads Pedersen is Betfred’s 6/4 favourite having just missed out on victory on Monday due to David Gaudu’s late inside raid at the final corner. Jasper Philipsen is next on 9/2, mainly on the presumption that the exploits in the first half don’t stop the sprinters finding their way back to the front at some point.

Ethan Vernon is 13/2, with Orluis Aular and Filippo ‘Top’ Ganna both 16/1.

Cycling Odds

Mads Pedersen @ 6/4

Having been a 4/6 shot yesterday, Lidl-Trek’s main man is a slightly more backable price for this one.

Everything went right for him on Monday until that last corner. He was expertly kept in contention at the front of the peloton by a great team lead-out which maintained a pace to allow them to hold the breakaway close. Then he looked to have found the perfect position to outdo Jonas Vingegaard in the closing metres, only for Gaudu to sneak home first.

There shouldn’t be any repeat of that if it comes to a sprint on Tuesday, and having seen Philipsen fall off the back of the pack after the most testing uphill section of the day 24 hours prior, he will be hoping for similar in this French finish.

Jasper Philipsen @ 9/2

I’m going to cover myself somewhat here, in that the only way I see Pedersen being beaten is if it is a full-on sprint come the final kilometres and the Alpecin-Deceuninck speedster is involved at the front.

There has to be a concern that the mountains in those opening 70km will take too much out of his legs, but if his team can nurse him through that beginning and then keep up the pace in the next 130km, the Belgian should hopefully have enough freshness about him to give it full beans in a sprint finish.

He is the best sprinter in the sport at the moment, with 14 Grand Tour stage wins to his name – including at stage one of this event. The only doubt is over whether he can get to that final 500 metres in the right position and shape to join the battle. At 9/2 and an implied probability of 18.2%, he can’t be ruled out.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.