La Vuelta Stage 21 Predictions: 3/1 King Kung to terrorise the field in Madrid

It has been a Vuelta a Espana characterised by unpredictability but on Sunday we arrive in Madrid for the 21st and final stage with the pre-race favourite, Primoz Roglic, on the verge of winning a fourth title in six attempts (live on Eurosport 1 from 15:00 BST, highlights at 21:00).

There’s a 24.6km individual time-trial to come, but the Slovenian’s 2:02 lead over Ben O’Connor and fantastic TT record suggests it will take the most unlikely of twists to deny him in the Spanish capital. My La Vuelta Stage 21 predictions won't include a fairytale final stage for Roglic.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

Groupama-FDJ’s Stefan Kung is 3/1 to rack up his team’s first victory of this year’s Vuelta in his favourite discipline. Brandon McNulty, winner of the opening-stage TT in Portugal is next at 7/2.

Race leader Roglic is 4/1, despite his claims whenever he’s asked that he is not a TT specialist… Yes, the same Roglic who won the Olympic TT in Tokyo in 2021. Mathias Vacek can be snapped up at 7/1, with Edoardo Affini and Mattia Cattaneo both 10/1 and Victor Campenaerts 16/1.

Cycling Odds

This will be pretty much full gas all the way. It’s not overly long as TTs go, and it’s about as pancake flat as you could ever expect to get over 24.6km.

The only bubbles in this concoction – don’t worry, that’s as far as the pancake analogies go – come around the halfway point and then in the final two kilometres with elevation gains of 4% and 3% respectively.

That slight raise comes after a 180-degree turn on the speedy city-centre route. The riders head south from the Plaza de Colon for a straight 1.5km downhill drag down the wide boulevard of the Paseo del Prado, past the legendary Cibeles Fountain, before turning for the final 2km at Atocha station.

The return north up the opposite side of the Paseo del Prado takes them to within 700 metres of the finish line, from where they take a left at Cibeles, then kink right down Gran Via. The street, known as the ‘Spanish Broadway’ is where the riders will complete their arduous trip around the country over the last three weeks.

DSM-Firmenich PostNL’s Tim Naberman will be the first one off the starting ramp at 15:30 BST, with the next 114 riders going out at 60-second intervals up to Quentin Pacher at 17:24. From there, it will be two-minute gaps separating the starts of the top 20 riders, ending with Primoz Roglic rolling away in the red skinsuit at 18:04.

Stefan Kung @ 3/1

Stefan Kung was built for time-trialling. Indeed, his last 12 wins on the professional circuit have all come in TT events, whether individual or team.

It is almost four years since he won the Swiss National Championship road race, which to this day remains his last victory not to have come in a time-trial.

He’s always a contender in this discipline, and if he gets anything like a favourable run with the weather he could well outstrip the likes of Roglic, stage 1 TT winner Brandon McNulty and Lidl-Trek’s Mathias Vacek to claim the win.

If he’s to finish the Vuelta with a victory, he will be left with a nervous wait. Due to his current GC position of 39th, he’s set to go off at 17:06 – almost a full hour before Roglic gets the nod.

That time difference can have a say due to the elements, as we saw between Lisbon and Oeiras 20 stages ago, but if all things are equal I can see Kung making the most of the effort Roglic in particular has put in in recent days in the red-jersey scrap.

At 3/1, Kung has an implied 25% chance of victory.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.