La Vuelta Stage 20 Predictions: Roglic and Skjelmose to shine for the Queen

Primoz Roglic finally made his move on Friday, and will wear the red jersey on Saturday’s Queen Stage, Stage 20 of the Vuelta a Espana 2024 between Villarcayo and Picon Blanco (live on Eurosport 1 from 13:30 BST, highlights at 20:00).

The 172km route should bring the best out of those battling for the General Classification’s top positions, with the Slovenian now on the verge of clinching a fourth title in this event. My La Vuelta Stage 20 predictions include some familiar faces.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

The best rider in the race is the favourite for the best stage of it. Roglic is 3/1 with Betfred to go back-to-back and extend his lead ahead of Sunday’s final stage, the 24.6lm individual time-trial in Madrid.

Enric Mas is second-favourite at 11/2, and he’s chasing Roglic and Ben O’Connor down in GC so will want to push as much as possible in the closing kilometres. Richard Carapaz, just as he was for Stage 19, is third in the betting. He’s 13/2.

Then there’s a big gap down to the rest. David Gaudu is 12/1 after finishing second on Friday, and Eddie Dunbar is 14/1. You can get 16/1 for reigning champion Sepp Kuss and 18/1 for either one of Mattias Skjelmose and Mikel Landa.

Cycling Odds

The Queen Stage of any race is tasty. This one is an absolute beast, and would have to be given the brutality of this year’s Vuelta. There are seven categorised climbs, the biggest and the last of them coming at the very end of the stage, making this a day of cycling that not fan will want to miss.

The first two Cat 3 ascents are just a taster, Las Estecas de Trueba taking the riders up 9.2km at an average gradient of 3.1% then the Puerto de la Braguia covering 5.8km at 5.9%.

The more difficult stuff starts with the Cat 2 Alto del Caracol, a 10.8km drag at 56.4%, then it’s off up the first Cat 1 of the day, the Portillo de Lunada for 14km of 6.1% climbing of fairly constant ascending.

Another Cat 2 comes in the form of the Portillo de la Sia, a 7.2km effort at 6.1%, then it’s the Puerto de los Tornos. That’s a Cat 1 climb for 11.3km at 6% with a 10% ramp close to its peak.

So by the time they get to 7.9km from home they’ll be sick of the sight of mountains but there’ll be the biggest of the lot just starting. The Picon Blanco rises at an average of 9.1%, with ramps of up to 18% involved, including 17% between the flamme rouge and the finish line.

Primoz Roglic @ 3/1

He’s played the waiting game for the most part, gradually chipping away at Ben O’Connor’s lead in GC, but Roglic and Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe showed their hand on Friday as he finally moved into red. Well, someone within the team’s hand, anyway.

Roglic said afterwards that he didn’t really want to go for the stage on Friday, rather he wanted to save himself for a late burst knowing that he still had a favourable mountain stage to come 24 hours later.

Here, though, the Slovenian will likely have more than enough to get the job done given the relentless of his pedal stroke when he’s taking on climbs of this type.

I can’t see him being beaten in this one, and by the end of the day he should have a GC lead big enough to ensure that even if he’s not at 100 per cent for the time-trial he’ll still make it to the top step of the podium on Sunday.

Mattias Skjelmose E/W @ 18/1

Skjelmose is one fantastic climber, as he showed in finishing third on Friday. The Lidl-Trek man has been there or thereabouts in a lot of the bigger mountains in this epic race.

He was fifth on stage eight to Cazorla which was won by Roglic, then sixth up the Cuitu Negru in stage 15 before Friday’s bronze position. And he’ll factor into the stage result on Saturday.

The Dane is sixth on GC, 4:47 back on Roglic, so will not be allowed to get too far away by the Red Bull team. But he could push the Slovenian all the way just the same and at 18/1 and an implied 5.3% win probability, I see those odds as favourable in the each-way market.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.