La Vuelta Stage 18 Predictions: 20/1 and 33/1 tips for Thursday’s breakaway day

After Kaden Groves’ win in the last recognised sprint stage on Wednesday, the Australian and his Alpecin-Deceuninck team will be hoping to fashion another on Thursday’s Stage 18 between Vitoria-Gasteiz and Maetzu (live on Eurosport 1 from 13:30 BST, highlights at 20:00).

The 179.5km trek will take in two difficult categorised mountains and plenty of undulating terrain but that doesn’t mean it will definitely be a breakaway day, making my La Vuelta Stage 18 predictions more complicated.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

The Ineos Grenadiers’ Jhonatan Narvaez is the 6/1 favourite with Betfred to tally a second Grand Tour win of the season following his Stage 1 success at the Giro d’Italia in May.

Next up is Groves, with bookies not completely sold on the idea that this will be a breakaway day. If enough teams attempt to control the break and bring their sprinters in, then the Aussie will become the favourite over the final kilometres. He’s 13/2 to make it happen.

Next up come Brandon McNulty and Mauro Schmid at 16/1, with Quinten Hermans and Lotto Dstny’s Victor Campenaerts 20/1. Kasper Asgreen and Stefan Kung are joined at 22/1 by Pavel Bittner, another shout for the sprint if it doesn’t go the break’s way.

Cycling Odds

We saw from Wednesday’s long-standing breakaway that the stage-hunters are hungry to get in on the act before the Grand Tour season ends on Sunday.

Thursday will be another chance.

There’s an uncategorised climb just west of Paul in the opening 25km with gradients reaching 8.1%, by the summit of which there could already be a healthy gap forming between escapees and the peloton.

The first categorised ascent comes at the Alto de Rivas de Tereso, which covers 11.1km at an average of 3.4%. It is a Cat 2 effort since it’s not the steepest of prospects but there are various short ramps of over 7% on the way up.

That’s is dealt with inside 82km, but it remains rocky terrain after the descent all the way up to the Cat 1 Puerto Herrera at the 134.3km mark. That’s a 5.6km climb at 8.3%, although it starts ramping up around 13km before the official start of the slopes.

It’s a smoother ride from the top of there but not without its demons, so if the peloton is not too far of the pace they will believe in their chance to make it a bunch finish. But there’s every chance the breakaway will have too much drive and belief to allow that to happen.

Victor Campenaerts @ 20/1

I’m going for two breakaway riders. Perhaps if Wout van Aert hadn’t crashed out of the race on Tuesday I’d have been more likely to be convinced this could turn into a bunch scrap.

But with Groves now head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the quick guys, I can’t see anyone helping Alpecin-Deceuninck out at the front of the peloton in their bid to keep the escapees close.

And on Wednesday we saw in Victor Campenaerts a man who was desperate to make something happen. In the final 20 kilometres or so he made several little darts in a bid to spice things up, and I reckon Thursday’s parcours looks well suited to him.

The Belgian took the tape on Stage 18 of the Tour de France earlier this summer after being part of a 33-man break and then beating Matteo Vercher and Michal Kwiatkowski to the line. And I can see him attempting similar in to Maetzu on Thursday.

He’s already been part of four major breaks at Grand Tours this year, is one of the gutsy and most likeable riders on the World Tour, and just never knows when he’s beaten.

Oier Lazkano E/W @ 33/1

Movistar, like Campenaerts’ Lotto Dstny, are one of the teams who have yet to win a stage at this Vuelta, and while Enric Mas is their big hope in the GC he has a Primoz Roglic-shaped obstacle in his way wherever he goes thanks to the small margins involved at the top end of the red jersey battle.

But in Lazkano they have a guy who has already showed on several occasions that he has a thirst to get out in front with a group of stage-hunters. Every time he has come to La Vuelta he has got involved in breaks, while he was officially in six escapes at Le Tour in June and July.

I think he’s set to be a real threat in stages such as this at the Grand Tour level, with his victories at the Tour de Wallonie in 2022 and last year’s Vuelta a Burgos both coming after very early breakaways.

He’s 33/1, which makes him a 2.9% chance for the win, but the each-way bet looks tempting here.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.