La Vuelta Stage 17 Predictions: Medium mountains perfect for 10/1 shot

There’s another hockey-stick stage of sorts ahead of the riders in La Vuelta 2025 on Wednesday (live on TNT Sports 3 from 13:30 BST, highlights at 22:00), but the overriding hope will be that Stage 17 can be completed in full after the latest curtailed day of action. 

Other than a Cat 3 obstacle midway through the 143.2km course from O Barco de Valdeorras to Alto de El Morredero, all the attention will be on the Cat 1 summit finish that should be fought out by the GC contenders. My La Vuelta Stage 17 predictions follow below.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

Following the hasty end to Tuesday’s stage, let’s just hope this one reaches the top of the climb at El Morredero because it should serve for one hell of a finish.

It’s one of only two categorised mountains in the day’s relatively short stage, but that ought to tee us up for some red-jersey jostling.

After a few pretty tasty uncategorised climbs in the first 60km of the parcours, the Paso de las Traviesas serves as Stage 17’s first official mountain. It’s a 7.8km effort at an average 4.1% gradient, but those early ramps of around 7% bely its Cat 3 ranking.

Then, after the descent and a couple of smaller but steep bumps in the road, the finish is accounted for by the 8.8km, 9.5% Cat 1 climb up the Alto de El Morredero.

It’s a bit of a monster, with the first five kilometres of the ramp getting to 13.5% in parts. With a tough, uncategorised climb of 1.5lm at 9.1% coming just before it, the riders will end up making around 1200 metres of elevation gain in the space of the last 22km.

That has to be a finale which makes a dent in even some of the better climbers, so there could definitely be some GC movement ahead.

Speaking of which, Jonas Vingegaard is the 2/1 favourite to take a stage win which would extend his 48-second lead over Joao Almeida at the top of the overall standings.

The Portuguese is second-favourite at 7/4, with Jay Vine a 10/1 chance.

At 14/1 are UAE Team Emirates’ Juan Ayuso and Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe’s Jai Hindley, and Tuesday’s stage winner, Egan Bernal, is one of three priced at 25/1.

Cycling Odds

Jonas Vingegaard @ 2/1

It has to be a matter of when Jonas goes for the jugular now, and I fancy him to have a real go at this stage. He knows he can make a big difference in the individual time trial, with his 2023 Tour de France effort to Combloux a case in point, but that it is not his out-and-out forte.

No, it is on summit finishes that he can do most to disrupt the rest of the field, and this might just be his opportunity to buy himself a bit more of a gap.

Almeida is just 48 seconds down, so it wouldn’t take too much to see him ousted from the red jersey. And, having suggested that Jonas would see Stage 16 as a chance to gap him, he will now see this as a big opportunity following Tuesday’s disruption.

He’s only a 2/1 shot, but for good reason. That’s still a good price for a rider who has proven time and again that he has the legs on anybody who is not Tadej Pogacar on these sorts of days.

Jay Vine E/W @ 10/1

It’s the same thinking as yesterday really. If Vine is feeling it, he can get into a break and make it stick.

The one question mark in backing him again is the slightly shorter nature of this stage, but he won’t let that put him off.

The number of tricky uncategorised climbs involved in this day of action means he could fancy his chances to escape with a decent-sized group of riders insignificant to the GC. And if he does that, he could be golden.

The nature of the final climb will probably mean he’ll need a reasonable gap if the GC battle is hotting up back at the front of the peloton. But then he’s no slouch himself, having claimed the King of the Mountains title at La Vuelta last year and opened up a big lead in the category to this point.

So yes, I’m going back-to-back with these two. Get on Vine and Vingegaard as Wednesday’s two big hopes.