La Vuelta Stage 15 Predictions: 50/1 Sunday bet makes so much sense

Week two of La Vuelta 2025 comes to a close on Sunday when Stage 15 takes place on 167.8km of Spanish roads between A Veiga/Vegadeo and Monforte de Lemos  (live on TNT Sports 3 from 13:30 BST, highlights on TNT Sports 1 at 22:00).

Joao Almeida remains within 48 seconds of race leader Jonas Vingegaard after Saturday’s stage, but GC statements might not be made before the final rest day. My La Vuelta Stage 14 are below, and it won’t be those in red-jersey contention that I’ll be considering.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

If you only looked at the second half of the stage profile for Sunday, you’d immediately write this off as a sprinters’ day and stick your money on Jasper Philipsen.

But this is another stage which sees some pretty torrid climbing in the opening half of the day’s proceedings, and when that last happened – back on stage four between Susa and Voiron – Philipsen had nothing left in his legs when it came to the finish and Ineos Grenadiers’ Ben Turner took the honours.

On this Stage 15, you’ve got to believe that somebody from a breakaway is most likely to win.

There’s a 16.4km climb up the category-one Puerto A Garganta right from the flag drop, and that takes them uphill at an average gradient of 5.1% with a kilometre-long section of 9.5% three-quarters of the way up.

That should split the pack straight away, and while the only other categorised lump after that comes on the Cat 2 Alto de Barbeitos (a 11.9km-long, 3.8% climb peaking at the 54.5km point), the first 98km are full of tricky climbs.

There’s 11 noticeable peaks in total in that first 100km, and that could do untold damage to the energy reserves of those hoping to bring the pack back together.

That’s probably what makes Mads Pedersen the 5/2 favourite with Betfred, with Philipsen 11/2 in the event that the break doesn’t quite pull away to its preferred effect.

Visma-Lease a Bike’s Victor Campenaerts is 16/1 as one of the great escape artists in the field, with Nico Denz at 20/1 and then it’s 25/1 for all three of Orluis Aular, Ben Turner and Ethan Vernon.

Cycling Odds

Mads Pedersen @ 5/2

There’s good reason Pedersen is the shortest-priced rider for this stage. He’s one of the better all-rounders in the peloton, and the fact that there’s an intermediate sprint bonus in Sarria at the 133km mark will probably prick up his ears too.

The green jersey incumbent has the ability to get over the bigger mountains with some of the leading mountain specialists, and then come sprint time he will be in with a big say.

If Mads is part of the lead group, he’s almost certain to take the intermediate sprint. And if they have a halfway-defendable gap five kilometres later when they get over the last notable rise of the day, then he has to be considered the man to beat at that point.

He’s got to be the smart pick for the day, with the 5/2 price implying a 28.6% chance of the Dane taking the tape.

Juan Ayuso E/W @ 50/1

If he was anyway near the top of the GC, there is no way Ayuso would be 50/1. And yet there is no way he would be allowed to go ahead in a breakaway group either.

But the Spaniard is kind of being left to his own devices since falling adrift of GC contention on Stage 6 in the Andorran Pyrenees on the first Thursday of the tour.

He’s won two stages in long breakaway stages since that point. He was in a 170km break the very next day and won into Cerler, then on Stage 12 he was part of a 110km escape heading for Los Corrales de Buelna and again took the honours.

Just as Remco Evenepoel transformed himself into a breakaway stage-winner extraordinaire in this event two years ago after falling behind eventual winner Sepp Kuss, Ayuso now has the leeway to really go for long breaks given that he is back in 60th place on GC and almost two hours adrift.

This really could be another day that lends itself to Ayuso pulling clear, and an eighth UAE Team Emirates win of this Vuelta has to be a possibility. At 50/1, it’s definitely worth an each-way shout.