La Vuelta Stage 15 Predictions: Roglic red assault or 12/1 Woods repeat?

If ever a Grand Tour rest day was well timed, it is this Monday’s at La Vuelta a Espana. That’s because Sunday’s 143km trip from Infiesto to Valgrande-Pajares finishes atop one of the most brutal climbs in road cycling, up to Cuitu Negru (live on Eurosport 1 from 12:00 BST, highlights at 20:00).

My La Vuelta Stage 15 predictions will naturally side with the big climbers and GC contenders as the riders take on 3804 vertical metres over the course of a day which, by profile, ranks as the toughest of the entire three-week race.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

To many, this is the day Primoz Roglic regains the red jersey for good. The bookies certainly think so, with Betfred pricing him as a runaway 3/1 favourite. Enric Mas, who some still believe will end up being his closest rival for the GC title, is 12/1 to win at Cuitu Negru.

You can also get 12/1 for a Max Poole stage victory, while Friday’s winner Michael Woods is the same price. Eddie Dunbar, who has also won a stage this week, is 16/1 alongside Jack Haig.

There are a host of names at 20/1, with Jay Vine, Lorenzo Fortunato, Matthew Riccitello, Mikel Landa and Simon Guglielmi unable to be separated.

Cycling Odds

This parcours is something else. There’s a hill round the corner from where I am right now which is only about 250 metres long, but at an 11% gradient I hate to walk up it and wouldn’t even think of trying to ride up there.

So one can only imagine how the riders will feel after Sunday’s stage-ending ascent to Cuitu Negru, the final three kilometres of which spikes to take in ramps of 25% gradients. The peak has only been reachable by road for the last 12 years, and the first time it was used in the Vuelta many people later petitioned for it never to be included in the race again.

And to think, not only does this come at the end of an 18.9km high-category climb, but that doesn’t even take into account the 22km of steady ascending on the uncategorised precursor leading up to the base of the climb.

It is far from the only test of the day either. First up after 31.2km begins the climb to the top of the 6.4km Cat 1 Alto de la Colladiella at an average gradient of 8.2% which reaches 14% of uphill road near the peak.

There’s then the Cat 3 Alto de Santo Emiliano (5.6km at 4.9%), followed midway through the stage by another trip up the Alto de la Colladiella. The riders will, I’m sure, be thanking the race organisers for sending them up there for a second time before the meaty finale to come.

Primoz Roglic @ 3/1

As with Friday’s stage, this will be marked in red on Roglic’s calendar. The profile suits his ability to up the intensity at the right time, and Ben O’Connor doesn’t have it in him to stay with the Slovenian. While the Aussie did well to limit his losses on Stage 13, he was never going to be a match for Roglic.

One thing that Friday showed is that Primoz is not a stage hunter. He has played it exactly right since his team’s errors on Stage 6 gave O’Connor a near five-minute lead. He’s taken three of those back, and should wipe out the rest on Sunday.

But he also won’t get too worried if a group goes up ahead so long as it doesn’t include an GC guys. And that’s why I don’t think he’s the runaway favourite for the stage despite the gap in odds between him and the rest.

That said, he is the one man you can make the greatest case for, and therefore I back him to take the stage winner’s trophy home alongside a new bit of scarlet uniform to ride in when racing resumes on Tuesday.

Michael Woods E/W @ 12/1

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. As I outlined ahead of Friday’s stage, Woods loves a stage such as this. The mountain-top finish is where he thrives, and he pulled away at exactly the right time after joining on to the breakaway on Stage 13.

He got me a bit of 16/1 cred, so I’m going to back him to go for it again at 12/1. The Cuitu Negru would be quite the addition to his iconic Grand Tour victories which already includes an epic win on the Puy de Dome at last year’s Tour de France.

The odds imply a 7.7% chance of victory, which I think is on the low side and I’ll also take the buffer of the each-way option.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.