La Vuelta Stage 14 Predictions: 5/1 and 22/1 shouts for critical Saturday stage

There’s just no let-up for the riders at the 2025 Vuelta a Espana. After Friday thriller up the slopes of L’Angliru, Saturday’s Stage 14 sees more punishment up two long, sapping Cat 1 climbs on the 135.9km route from Aviles to Lagos de Somiedo (live on TNT Sports 3 from 12:15 BST, highlights at 22:00).

Joao Almeida picked up four seconds on race leader Jonas Vingegaard when winning the brilliant battle on Stage 13. But they’ll be straight back into head-to-head combat in this one, and my La Vuelta Stage 14 follow below.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

The riders won’t be thanking the race organisers for following up the ‘Angry Lou’ with this second successive high-mountain stage.

It’s another summit finish. It’s another real toughie. The one thing going for it is that it’s a Cat 1 finale rather than a Super-Category repeat of Friday’s denouement.

As with Stage 13, this one begins with a forgiving opening half, but after the Cat 3, 5.8km climb up L’Alto Tenebreo at the midway point attention completely turns upwards.

The Cat 1 Puertu de San Llaurienzu peaks 102km into proceedings. It’s 9.9km long, tops out 1345 metres above sea level, and its 8.6% average gradient belies the fact that the second half of the climb is packed with sections of 10%-plus.

From there they descend over 800 metres before point skywards again on the long drag towards the official start of the final climb.

The last 16.8km are accounted for by La Farrapona, which averages 6%. That doesn’t sound too rough, but remind yourself that this is almost 17km of riding uphill, and it only gets tougher as the final six kilometres are all at 8% or more and there’s over 1000 metres of elevation between the bottom of the mountain and the top.

All signs point to this being a battle of the top two in GC once more. Just as they broke off from the rest 4.5km from the top of L’Angliru, there should be a point at which Almeida and Vingegaard put distance between themselves and the remainder of the field.

That’s why Vingegaard is the 6/4 favourite for the stage and Almeida is just behind him at 5/1.

Of the rest, Almeida’s UAE Team Emirates stablemate (for now) Juan Ayuso is 6/1, with Jay Vine at 10/1.

Britain’s Tom Pidcock is 20/1 after losing time on Friday, with Australia’s Jai Hindley 22/1.

Cycling Odds

Joao Almeida @ 5/1

I was kicking myself a little for only going each-way on Joao Almeida on Stage 13 but I’m backing him to double up here.

He showed on L’Angliru that he can go deep with Vingegaard. And while he didn’t drop the red jersey, he definitely looked his equal.

Throw in the fact the Portuguese is now within 46 seconds of the leader and there has to be a belief that if he can find a gap in the Dane’s armoury then he can truly challenge for red.

It is on a stage like this that Almeida has to make inroads if he is to win the race, so attacks should be punchy, regular, and concerted.

If all else fails, I still think the UAE leader will have the legs in him to see off Vingegaard on the line again and record his team’s seventh stage win in 14 at this Vuelta.

Jai Hindley E/W @ 22/1

Like Almeida, Hindley now has something very tangible to fight for after showing up well on L’Angliru.

He came in third on Friday just 28 seconds back from the sprint a deux, and picked up 48 seconds on Tom Pidcock. That means the Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe rider is now only 0:42 back from the virtual podium.

Not since he won the Giro d’Italia back in 2022 has he looked this big a danger. And as somebody whose position at Red Bull could be compromised next year by the arrival of double Olympic champion Remco Evenepoel, Hindley couldn’t pick a better time to make a real statement.

If he is to overhaul Pidcock, it could well be this kind of day on which to do it. One big attack on the final climb might be all it takes to change the destiny of the top three positions in this year’s race.

And if we find Almeida, Vingegaard and Hindley crossing as the first three once more on Saturday, then it might well be a sign that this is the trio to take it all the way to Madrid.