La Vuelta Stage 14 Predictions: 25/1 Saturday tip to follow 16/1 Friday win?

The magnificent 2024 edition of La Vuelta a Espana has given us a bit of everything so far, and there is more to come on Saturday’s Stage 14, with a relentless 22.8km climb up the Puerto de Leitariegos the outstanding feature (live on Eurosport 1 from 13:30 BST, highlights at 21:00).

The 200.5km route from Villafranca del Bierzo to Villablino will provide some more fascinating racing, making my La Vuelta Stage 14 predictions tough as I look to back up yesterday’s 16/1 success.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

Wout van Aert is the massive favourite with Betfred, just as he is likely to be with everyone who has even a passing interest in cycling. He’s 11/4 to record a fourth win of the race, with Jhonatan Narvaez at 8/1.

Britain’s Max Poole is 12/1, with Primoz Roglic 16/1 to back up Friday’s massive gain on Ben O’Connor with a stage victory 24 hours on. Alpecin-Deceuninck’s Quinten Hermans is 22/1, while you can get 25/1 for Eddie Dunbar, Marc Soler and Mauro Schmid.

After losing his front wheel and sliding 15 or 20 feet down the side of a mountain on Friday, Brandon McNulty can be backed at 28/1 to bounce back in the most phenomenal of fashions.

Cycling Odds

Yet another day of more than 3,000 metres of climbing gets underway in Villafranca del Bierzo and immediately takes an uphill trajectory.

It will feel like almost incessant climbing for most of the first half of the stage for the riders, culminating 102.5km at the peak of the Cat 3 Puerto de Cerredo, a 7km mountain of average 4.6% gradient.

There’s finally a notable descent from there, with a short but tasty uncategorised lump 23 km later before a drop into the valley which precedes the day’s deciding climb, the long, long trip up the Puerto de Leitariegos.

In essence it’s not an overly steep ascent, but the sheer length of it at a fairly constant 4.5% gradient will really take it out of the majority of the field.

This might not be the day that Primoz Roglic targets a return to the red jersey since Ben O’Connor will fancy his chances of sticking with the Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe man. The Australian normally finds it more difficult the steeper the climbs get, so this one may be in his good books as he looks to hold on to his 1:21 lead in the GC.

Wout van Aert @ 11/4

I got the winner on my each-way bet yesterday as Michael Woods turned in another fantastic mountain-top solo performance at Grand Tour level, and the reasoning for my Roglic tip proved sound as he distanced O’Connor late on up the final climb behind a large breakaway group.

In the bid to back up that success, I can’t help but look at Van Aert to have another big day. He was part of that initial break on Friday but I never really fancied him to outdo Woods – among others – on the steep rise to the line.

Here, though, I think he can excel on the more forgiving gradient of the Leitariegos, and the following descent and short, flat finish should play into his hands if he’s part of the lead group once more.

Marc Soler E/W @ 25/1

I’m a big fan of Soler’s racing style. He’s not the type to go in long bursts ahead of the rest, but he’s got that punchy way of keeping fellow breakaway riders on their toes.

He’s been in four escapes in the last four days of racing, and has finished in the top three in a trio of those. With that kind of recent record and a thirst to keep having a say out front for a team with no skin in the GC game, I can see Soler going for it again here.

The 25/1 odds imply a 3.8% probability of Soler winning, but form says he’s better than that at a quarter of the odds for a place finish.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.