La Vuelta Stage 12 Predictions: 33/1 shot to lead the break home?
Wednesday wasn’t the first time we’ve seen a major cycling event disrupted by protests, so the riders should be more than ready to resume full focus on Thursday when La Vuelta travels from Laredo to Los Corrales de Buelna on Stage 12 (live on TNT Sports 3 from 13:30 BST, highlights at 22:00).
A medium-mountain day lies ahead, with a Cat 2 climb coming early on and a Cat 1 obstacle towards the end of the 144.9km route. My La Vuelta Stage 12 predictions follow, with an ability to lead on the big hills of vital importance.
The events at the finish line in Bilbao on Wednesday meant we lost the opportunity to see just how much Jonas Vingegaard could be stretched by Tom Pidcock’s regular attacks.
But a breakaway could well have the big say on Thursday, with the two categorised climbs both being done with early enough to potentially play into the hands of any escapees.
The first of those is the category-two Puerto de Alisas which peaks just over 41km into the day’s proceedings. It is an 8.6km drag at an average gradient of 5.9%.
The bigger of the two comes 22.4km from home at the Cat 1 Collada de Brenes, which has slopes of 10% gradient on the 7km journey up at an average of 7.9%.
That’s it for the climbs though, and any GC hopefuls not within a relatively short distance of the break might find themselves too far behind given some of the descending to come from there.
After looking to have the measure of Vingegaard 24 hours earlier, Pidcock is the 6/1 favourite with Betfred to take the top step of the podium in Los Corrales de Buelna.
Following him are Juan Ayuso at 13/2, just days on from announcing he’s leaving UAE Team Emirates at the end of the season, and both Vingegaard and Mark Soler are 12/1 chances.
Eddie Dunbar E/W @ 33/1
I’ve been waiting for an Eddie Dunbar breakaway attempt in this edition of La Vuelta, and Thursday might well be the day.
Having been one of more than 30 riders to escape on Stage 11 of last year’s race, he has shown a further thirst for the break in both the Criterium du Dauphine and Tour de France in 2025.
On each of those occasions the attacks have come on stages whose biggest climbs have come long before the end of the race, and that bears out with what is ahead on the way to Los Corrales de Buelna.
Even the second of his two wins at La Vuelta 12 months ago came when climbing brilliantly as part of a chase group up the third of three Cat 1 mountains, so he certainly has the form behind him to make the most of the steepest of obstacles.
Dunbar is an underrated rider in this peloton, for my mind. And if anyone can break from the mid-part of the current standings, the Jayco Alula man definitely can. At over 50 minutes back on GC, nobody aiming for the red jersey will break their neck flagging him down in the late stages.
I'm tipping the each-way chance just to hedge my bets slightly.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Tom Pidcock @ 6/1
As a cover bet, I’m on Pidcock to look for another few seconds to chip out of Vingegaard’s lead if the break doesn’t materialise or can’t quite hold out until the end.
The Brit is looking like a real red jersey threat now, and is within a minute of the lead at 56 seconds back.
While he can’t get everything back in four-second intervals from bonus time, another opportunity to do exactly that ought to be snaffled up by the Q36.5 man.
If he’s in with a chance late on, he’d have to be the one to back.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
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