La Vuelta Stage 11 Predictions: 12/1 shot for the stage of seven climbs

La Vuelta 2025 throws up one of its most fascinating days on Wednesday as Stage 11 takes to riders in a big loop, starting and finishing in Bilbao, via seven categorised climbs which should instigate a whole heap of attacking racing (live on TNT Sports 3 from 12:15 BST, highlights at 22:00).

There’s over 3000 metres of uphill riding to be done as two Cat 2 and five Cat 3 mountains are negotiated in 157.4km around the Basque country. Read on for my La Vuelta Stage 11 predictions, with ‘attack’ being very much the buzzword.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

This will be one of the most watchable stages of the entire event, with nobody able to rest on their laurels on a fantastically dynamic route.

Straight from the off, there’s a Cat 3 climb at Alto de Laukiz, a punchy 3.9km drag at 4.7% which tops out 218 metres above sea level. And there’s plenty more where that came from.

After the Cat 3 Alto de Sollube (7.2km at 4.2%) at the 26.2km mark, there comes the longest flat stretch of the entire day. Then, just 37km later, the tallest climb of the day lies ahead at Balcon de Bizkaia (4.3km at 5.4%), which takes the riders to 430 metres altitude.

There’s a fourth Cat 3 beyond that, with the Alto de Morga’s summit coming after 86.1km of racing (8.2km at 3.5%). And then it’s the twice-negotiated Cat 2 climb of the day as the riders face their toughest test just when their legs will really be feeling the heat.

Alto del Vivero is an average 8.3% gradient 4.2km obstacle, with the road going up at 12.4% and 12.2% in separate sections. After two goes up there on a loop around the outskirts of Bilbao, it’s off to the Alto de Pike which potentially serves as the most difficult part of the entire day.

The Pike is only 2.3km long but goes north at an average gradient of 8.9%, with the last 1.5km covering sections of between 12.7% and 13.1%. In a day full of punchy, punishing climbs, this is not the sort of final assault the riders will be looking forward to.

Finally, they descend into Bilbao for a far more straightforward finish, so if there are multiple riders coming down the Alto de Pike together then a sprint could be on the cards. That’s a big ‘if’, though.

Jonas Vingegaard, as expected, is the 5/1 favourite for the stage, with GC rival Tom Pidcock of Q36.5 at 6/1 and UAE's Juan Ayuso 8/1. Giulio Ciccone of Lidl-Trek is 12/1, with Joao Almeida and two-time stage-winner Jay Vine both 16/1.

Cycling Odds

Giulio Ciccone @ 12/1

Having tipped up Vine and Vingegaard to win the last two stages, I’d be feeling pretty smug right now if only I’d got them the right way round!

As for stage 11… I’ve given Ciccone some backing at this Vuelta a Espana, tipping him for the polka dot jersey and for the odd stage or two.

And but for a near miss on stage two to Limone Piemonte when he was pipped to the line by Jonas Vingegaard in a photo finish, this has been a surprise assault by the Italian.

Having never before having finished in the top 10 of a Grand Tour, nobody really had him down as a GC contender. And having won the mountain classifications of both the Giro d’Italia and Tour de France before now, there was a suspicion he would attempt to become only the third rider in history to be crowned King of the Mountains at all three majors.

But instead he has been found close to the wheel of Vingegaard for much of the Vuelta and finds himself in sixth place as we approach the halfway point.

He fell away from the group of favourites in the final few kilometres on Tuesday, but then made the most of Julien Bernard’s great shift to rejoin the peloton. Could that decision to not go for broke help him when it comes to winning stage 11?

I reckon he has to be high in the consideration list. Maybe the fact he’s now in the GC picture means he doesn’t get the leeway he normally would from Vingegaard in particular. But I still like Ciccone’s chances when you consider that the Dane will know that any slight deficit can easily be more than made up for come TT time.

Jonas Vingegaard E/W @ 5/1

By way of cover, I’m happy to back Jonas for a top-four finish as well. He shouldn’t be far off the top spot either way.

Having regained the red jersey on Stage 10, there is no massive rush to put his foot down. But the nature of the parcours could lead to an opportunity for him to build a gap that will stand the test of time.

Vingegaard hasn’t looked out of control yet, and if Ciccone, Tom Pidcock, Joao Almeida or any other possible podium finisher goes for it, so will the race favourite.

The 5/1 price at a quarter the odds for four places plays into our hands here too.