La Vuelta Stage 11 Predictions: 8/1 & 33/1 tips on short, steep climbs

The lumps and bumps awaiting the riders on Stage 11 of La Vuelta a Espana are officially listed as ‘medium mountains’ ahead of five brutal days of climbing to come in quick succession. But that undersells the difficulty of Wednesday’s action (live on Eurosport 1 from 13:30 BST, highlights at 20:00).

As if this year’s race hasn’t been tough enough to call, my La Vuelta Stage 11 predictions will have to bear in mind which riders will be preaching patience ahead of the tougher stages to follow.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

Wout van Aert is a skinny 11/2 to win a fourth stage of this edition of La Vuelta, with Jhonatan Narvaez and Primoz Roglic both 8/1.

Harold Tejada and Michael Woods come next at 16/1 apiece, implying a win probability of 5.9%, and Brandon McNulty is 18/1.

Isaac del Toro is 20/1 to register a first win in his maiden Grand Tour, just ahead of Enric Mas, who is 22/1.

Cycling Odds

This might well be a day for a breakaway to succeed, with the profile being pretty rigorous and a number of teams looking to get some camera time up at the front of the race.

The stage map shows three big loops, one of which is taken twice, as the riders start and finish at the Campus Tecnologico Cortizo in Padron just south-west of Santiago de Compostela.

The initial journey out towards the north-west coast of Spain swings north and then back east to incorporate the category-three trip up the Puerto San Xusto. It’s a 10.2km climb at an average 4.2% gradient, with its descent leading to the beginning of a loop which will be negotiated twice.

As part of that central circuit the peloton will twice encounter the Cat 2 Puerto Aguasantas, a 5.7km journey at 6.1%. By the time they have cleared it for the second time they will be heading back east towards the Cat 3 Puerto Cruxeiras, the day’s final mountain.

That is a steep 2.9km climb at an average gradient of 8.9%, with the peak coming less than three kilometres from the end of the day’s 166.5km route. The descent, therefore, could be crucial if there is more than one combatant in the mix at that point.

Primoz Roglic @ 8/1

Primoz has to have a real go at biting into Ben O’Connor’s 3:53 lead in the GC standings at some point, and this seems like the kind of stage when he could do it. The short, steep climbs should be difficult for the Australian to handle, whereas Roglic can truly come to the fore on such days.

The Slovenian’s odds to win the race were lengthened after Sunday’s stage nine into Granada after he had underwhelmed to the point of losing bonus seconds to O’Connor on the finish line. But after the first rest day of the Vuelta and a competitive ride on Tuesday, this ought to be one of the stages circled on Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe’s calendar.

At 8/1, he’s well worth backing. I think a more convincing Sunday ride would have seen him priced far shorter for this one, and that disappointment should have little bearing on his desire to attack here.

Marc Soler E/W @ 33/1

I just have a feeling for this one.

Having gone with breakaway’s either side of Monday’s rest day, Soler has shown his ability to pull rank with fellow chancers. And he has previous form for it.

Two years ago he was part of seven major breakaways in the Vuelta, including in his stage-five win into Bilbao when he went with a 12-man 92km break and then broke solo for the final 15.4km.

Even last year he was part of five breaks at Grand Tours, and he’s the kind of rider who can really help to set the pace.

With UAE Team Emirates not really having a dog in the GC fight as it stands, they may well let Soler make a judgement on going as and when something develops off the front of the peloton.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.