La Vuelta Stage 10 Predictions: 20/1 tip on another potential win day for Vingegaard
After the first rest day of La Vuelta 2025, Tuesday brings a sense of deja vu for the riders as they face a Stage 10 which looks like more of the same after Sunday’s previous day of action (live on TNT Sports 3 from 13:30 BST, highlights at 22:00).
It’s another stage resembling a hockey stick, with not an awful lot of difficulty in the early knockings but then a gruelling category-one climb to round out proceedings. My La Vuelta Stage 10 predictions follow, and there’s every chance we’re looking at the GC contenders once more.
A second successive raceday with a Cat 1 summit finish will spark familiar feelings as the riders take on the 175.3km route from Parque de la Naturaleza Sendaviva to El Ferial Larra Belagua.
Again, there are a few uncategorised rises to contend with. But added to that is a Category 3 effort at the Alto de las Coronas. It’s a 7.5km trek at an average gradient of 4.7% without one section of 6.8%.
That obstacle tops out at 950 metres above sea level and comes around 50km from the end, and its descent leads straight into the ride up towards the stage-ending Puerto de Belagua.
The Belagua is 9.4km at an average gain of 6.2%. Its steepest section is only 8.2%, with much of the first seven kilometres being a steady drain of lactic acid. While the road eases up at the last couple of Ks, much of the damage might have been done by then.
After his stage win on Sunday, this is probably Jonas Vingegaard’s stage again if he wants it. He currently sits just Bahrain Victorious’ Torstein Traaen on GC, and has the ability to regain the maillot rojo if he feels this is the right time to seize control.
That’s what makes the Dane a 10/3 to win the stage, with UAE Team Emirates pair Juan Ayuso and Jay Vine 13/2 and 15/2 respectively.
After coming in second on stage nine, Q36.5’s Tom Pidcock is 16/1 for the victory, with Joao Almeida and surprise GC podium contender Giulio Ciccone both 20/1.
Jonas Vingegaard @ 10/3
It seems this will be all about timing now for Visma-Lease a Bike’s team leader.
Will he use the second week to truly stamp his authority on the race and build himself an advantage in the standings? Or is he more likely to play the waiting game as Primoz Roglic did in last year’s Vuelta by leaving it until stage 20 to put the time between himself and runner-up Ben O’Connor.
I think Vingegaard is minded to head towards the former over the latter. He’ll want to build in enough of a buffer that a bad day at the office won’t be the end of the world, and he knows from very recent evidence that he has the legs to see off him major rivals.
Giulio Ciccone has given the GC battle a bit of a go in this Vuelta, while Joao Almeida has shown some stickability too. But Vingegaard is proving to be the one stand-out superstar of the event when he pushes down on the pedals.
And even though he misjudged the remaining distance on Sunday when bursting clear in the final 10km, he was more than comfortable in that solo position.
He might not go for another long assault here, but if he senses one of his competitors flagging on the Belagua he will definitely look to punish them with an acceleration.
That might be all it takes to win the stage if whatever breakaway there is gets pegged back at some point on that Cat 1 climb.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Joao Almeida E/W @ 20/1
Even if Vingegaard gets away, Almeida shouldn’t be too far behind.
Since Juan Ayuso crumbled in the Andorran Pyrenees, the Portuguese has become UAE’s undisputed GC threat. And it was Almeida who stayed at the Dane’s pace for the longest on Sunday up to Valdezcaray ski station.
He and Tom Pidcock currently look like the best bets to join Vingegaard on the podium in Madrid, and it is because of their qualities on just these sorts of days that they hold that esteem right now.
While Ciccone has hung with Vingegaard more than expected and not made the assault on the King of the Mountains jersey as he has in Grand Tours past, it is the triumvirate of Vingegaard, Almeida and Pidcock who will be fighting it out for first place if all things are equal.
At 20/1, Almeida is an excellent each-way chance.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
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