La Vuelta Predictions: 9/1 Carapaz and 5/1 Kuss offer value

Just a few weeks on from the finale of the Tour de France and a matter of days since the end of the Paris Olympics, the cycling season’s last major gets underway on Saturday with the first stage of La Vuelta a Espana.

Nothing should be taken for granted on this year’s trip around Spain (and Portugal), as the riders are set to take on the greatest combined elevation gain of any Grand Tour since the 20th Century. With no Tadej Pogacar, Remco Evenepoel or Jonas Vingegaard, any La Vuelta predictions will have to sift through a huge number of potential contenders.

La Vuelta Betting Odds 

Sepp Kuss sprung a huge surprise in winning last year’s Vuelta when Visma-Lease a Bike had been expecting to let Jonas Vingegaard and Primoz Roglic battle it out for supremacy.

But whereas the American was allowed to make the most of a chance to don red after Remco Evenepoel’s shock blowout on stage six up to the Observatorio Astrofisico de Javalambre, this time around he is undoubtedly Visma’s main hope.

He does share colours with Wout van Aert, but the Belgian’s main aim will likely be the points classification as the unrelenting nature of this year’s Vuelta means it is climbing GC specialists who will be battling for red.

Kuss’ former team-mate Roglic is the favourite at 2/1 with Betfred, but this is a fairly open field. The reigning champ himself is 5/1, while UAE Team Emirates’ best hopes, Adam Yates and Joao Almeida both come in at 6/1.

Big things are expected of Movistar’s Enric Mas, who is 8/1, while Mikel Landa steps into the shoes of double Olympic champ Evenepoel as Soudal Quick-Step’s GC leader as is 14/1.

Cycling Odds

EF Education-Easypost’s Richard Carapaz is an interesting one to follow here. He’s 18/1 for the red jersey, but there’s sense in backing him given the route this year. There’s just one likely sprint finish, with a number of high mountain stages and a collection of potential breakaway opportunities, with a total of 62,000 metres of elevation gain.

Those are the kind of profiles which could easily play into the Ecuadorian’s hands. As recently as last month’s Tour de France, he was a member of six breakaway efforts in a 10-stage span. He was a stage winner once in that spell and moved up the GC standings from 32nd to 15th at one point, and on the very steep climbs to come he will be difficult to match.

Dani Martinez of Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe is 20/1 but could find himself supporting teammate Roglic for the most part, so expect him to be an each-way bet at best.

Sepp Kuss to win General Classification @ 5/1

I was so very tempted to go with Roglic for the GC but his 2/1 is not where the value is given that the Slovenian looked short of his very best at the Tour de France and had to withdraw after stage 12 following crashes on back-to-back days.

But in Kuss, Visma-Lease a Bike have a man who is fresh and reliable over the unforgiving mountains which lie ahead. Last year he finished in red having also competed in the Giro d’Italia and Le Tour, but this is his first Grand Tour due to circumstance having missed France due to illness.

He won the Vuelta a Burgos last week in preparation for this, and he should only benefit from having a full team ready to ride for him. It took until the final couple of days for Visma to categorically state that the likes of Vingegaard and Roglic were pulling for Kuss in 2023, but he should have the sole focus when it matters over the next three weeks.

That should be enough for him to push Roglic all the way, and I can see him getting over the top of the man he has effectively replaced as Visma’s number-two GC guy after Vingegaard.

Richard Carapaz to win King of the Mountains Classification @ 9/1

I’ve gone back and forth on this one, and I was seriously considering going with Carapaz as an each-way bet in the GC battle at 18/1. But if he is to excel in those stages which best suit him, then I reckon he can outdo the favourite, Giulio Ciccone, in the King of the Mountains category.

Carapaz has already won the polka dots in France this year and was the KOM here in Spain in 2022, so I expect him to be right in the mix when it comes to the highest mountains.

Given his brilliance on breakaway days, he should also be a leading candidate to hoover up intermediate KOM points when getting off the front of the peloton on such days.

At 9/1 and an implied probability of 10%, Carapaz is well worth the bet.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.