Giro d’Italia Predictions: 33/1 Pidcock pick but this could be Ayuso’s moment

The Albanian port city of Durres is the scene for the start of cycling’s Grand Tour season on Friday, and - for once - there will be a number of riders in the 184-strong field who will believe they have a real chance of winning the 2025 Giro d’Italia.

With reigning champion Tadej Pogacar not in the startlist after his busy spring campaign, there is a lack of a clear favourite, while Jonas Vingegaard is slowly building towards the Tour de France and so is also missing from the trip around the Bel Paese. In Pogacar’s absence, my Giro d’Italia predictions will be focusing on one of his UAE Team Emirates stablemates.

Giro d'Italia Betting Odds

There may be no participation for the two riders who have won the last five Tours de France between them (Pogacar in 2020, ’21 and ’24, Vingegaard in ’22 and ’23), but there’s still a five-time Grand Tour winner heading the field in Primoz Roglic.

The Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe rider was a Giro champion two years ago, with his Stage 20 time-trial brilliance seeing him pip Geraint Thomas to the Maglia rosa by just 14 seconds, and most recently was a fourth-time winner at the Vuelta a Espana last September. He's 13/8 with Betfred to be on the top step in Rome again on May 31.

But UAE Team Emirates will still look to lead from the front despite Pogacar’s prioritisation of the spring classics. Juan Ayuso is well-backed at 2/1 to have a real dig after having shown real signs of GC quality in previous Grand Tours, recording a third-place finish at the 2023 Vuelta and then ended fourth in the same event last year.

His stickability at the top end of the reckoning on mountainous terrains make him a potential star of the future, and the hope for his team will be that he can take Pogacar’s mantle in the next three weeks in a bid to show that he is ready to be the focal point of a concerted bid for glory.

The Spaniard has insisted over the past week that anything short of a podium position would be “disappointing”, and if he can assert some authority early then he should have the full UAE squad pulling in his favour, led by the brilliant Adam Yates, who himself is an 8/1 shot for the pink jersey.

The most intriguing thing about trying to pick between these favourite is the parcours of this year’s race. Many of the more punishing climbs come in the middle of stages rather than being used for summit finishes, so the decisive factor might well be the tactics employed on days in which the peloton has been split midway through.

Friday’s opening stage into Tirana is the first of eight hilly days, with five being classified as high mountain efforts. That doesn’t exactly tell the story though, as that lack of summit finales perhaps taking away a lot of the drama late on.

Juan Ayuso to win @ 2/1

It would be understandable to plump for the tried and tested Roglic for a GC crown here, but I have this down as Ayuso’s big moment to show what he can do.

Roglic has five titles to his name, but he is also known for coming off the bike more regularly than most leading figures might tend to. Add to that the fact that he didn’t look entirely convincing when eventually reigning in Ben O’Connor to win the Vuelta last autumn, and I’m thinking he might not be able to close down Ayuso if the Spaniard gets a lead.

I’m also fascinated by the prospect of Ayuso getting the full support of a Grand Tour-level UAE team. There’s not only Adam Yates there to pull for him but the likes of Jay Vine, Isaac Del Toro and Rafa Majka too. If they can protect the 22-year-old in the way they’ve been there for Pogacar over recent years, then this could be the beginning of Ayuso’s time among the major names in the sport.

Cycling Odds

Tom Pidcock E/W @ 33/1

The biggest news regarding Tom Pidcock heading into the Giro is that he’s even in the race. Having transferred from Ineos Grenadiers to Q36.5 at the end of 2024, the Brit was left hoping for his ProSeries team to gain invites to major World Tour events. And in Italy they have scored just such an invitation.

The question mark for Pidcock riding in a ProSeries outfit will always be around what support he can expect to get from the rest of the team, but he showed at the AlUla Tour at the start of the year that he can take the initiative himself when necessary.

And when he finished sixth at Tirreno-Adriatico he was a top-10 finisher four times in seven days to drag himself into contention.

Pidcock is the type to be always involved in the lead groups, and I reckon the profile of many of the stages this year – with those mid-race mountains shaking things up a bit – could mean that the Leeds-born hope has a say in the podium battle come the final weekend in Rome on his Giro debut.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.