Australia vs India Prediction: Can we capitalise on 8/1 Washington?

Our cricket correspondent wraps up the fifth and final T20I of the Series between Australia and India, which will be played at Brisbane on Saturday. The match will start at 08:15 and be broadcast live on TNT Sports.  

Jamie has found a big price on an Indian bowler who had a great time of it in the last match and an Australian one enjoying home comforts. Let's check out his Australia vs India Predictions...

*You can check out the Cricket Odds from all of our Cricket Betting markets over on betfred.com

Match Preview:

Australia  

Australia weren't too bad with the ball on Friday, restricting India to what could have been a chaseable 168.  

Nathan Ellis took three wickets for the second match in a row, as did the returning Adam Zampa but both Zampa and his best mate Marcus Stoinis were expensive. They only used five bowlers with the fit-again Glenn Maxwell not given a chance to turn his arm over. Mind you, he didn't make much of a contribution with the bat either, with just two runs from four, but The Big Show will be better for the run and should keep his place.  

That's partly because the squad is already so depleted that they couldn't really bring anyone in if they wanted to.  

Mitch Marsh top-scored once again (a theme in this white-ball Series), but this time, just 30 was enough to do it with our 11/1 wager, Stoinis, having just about enough deliveries to have overtaken him if he'd still been there at the end. He was out for 17 but the thinking was right.  

India 

India has unsurprisingly got better and better as the Tour has progressed, adapting better to conditions and boundary sizes with each game.  

All of the Top four got to at least 20 with Shubman Gill, who had a poor time of it up to this match, top-scoring with 44.  

But the man who really made the difference was Axar Patel, one of those who rarely does anything spectacular but also rarely lets you down. But this time he certainly made a big contribution with two important wickets and a quickfire 21 off 11 that on another day could have been the difference between the two teams.  

Washington Sundar has been good, with runs in the previous match and three wickets in this one. From just eight balls! With the Series on the line going to the decider, they'll probably pick the same team again.  

Pitch and conditions

11 T20Is have been played here over the years. Australia were involved in eight of them, losing only once to the Windies all the way back in 2013.  

Helpfully, six of those 11 were played in 2022 or later.  

In the last three, 178 was defended against the Windies by Australia, 179 against Ireland was enough for the Aussies to defend that. A 7-over-a-side bash against Pakistan last year was easily won by Australia, too.  

Australia averages 9.2 runs per over in Brisbane in their eight matches, so it's a high-scoring ground. 190 could be a par score. We've been lucky with the weather of late but there's a good chance of some showers during the game, though we expect it to be completed. There may be a slight reduction in overs, though.   

Match Winner odds 

Australia are 11/10, implied probability of 47.6%. India are 8/11, or 58%.  

India have been getting better and better, as noted already, and are deserved favourites.  

But Australia have an excellent record here at Brisbane and with rain in the air and the possibility of a reduced match and the advantage that normally gives to the chaser, we don't want too many uncertainties, so the best move is to leave the market alone entirely.   

*For all the latest and live Australia vs India 5th IT20 Odds then head over to betfred.com 

India Top Bowler  

It's some risk that the odds-compilers are taking to lay 8/1 on a man who took three wickets in eight balls on Thursday. Imagine if he'd bowled all 24.  

That's a joke but what isn't a joke is the potential here. Washington Sundar has been good this tour with 1, 2 and 2 wickets in the ODIs and 3 in the last match after not getting a bowl at all in the previous one.  

They used six bowlers last time out and don't seem particularly keen on turning to the likes of Abishek Sharma or Tilak Varma with the ball. So, it may be the same six, of which Shivam Dube is very much a part-timer. Either way, Sundar will have impressed the skipper last time out and should get a fair crack of the whip here at a big price.

Australia Top Bowler  

As for Australia, Xavier Bartlett ticks plenty of boxes. The first is that after taking 3/39 in one of the ODIs, he's played every match of this T20 Series, so he is in good rhythm as opposed to some of the bowlers brought in, let out, brought back in, etc.  

The second is that his T20 record is pretty good in general from one of those reliable sorts. But thirdly, this is his home ground here, where he plays for the Heat. Australia grounds really are quite unique, so knowledge of conditions and the wicket makes a huge difference, as we saw with our 3/1 chance Ellis at Hobart a few days ago.  

The 3/1 on Bartlett will do us fine.  

Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2025: 

• Points Staked: 122 
• Points Returned: 113.48 
• Current P/L: -8.52