Sri Lanka vs India Prediction: Back Axar Patel to Spin us a 4/1 winner

The 1st T20I between Sri Lanka and India will be played on August 2 in Colombo with a start time of 10.00 UK time as India look to build on their 3-0 clean sweep in the recent T20I Series. The game is set to be broadcast on TNT Sports 2 in the UK.

James Pacheco has 3/1 and 4/1 selections on the India top batsman and top bowler markets ahead of this one as he previews the match and gives us his Sri Lanka vs India Predictions...

Sri Lanka  

Sri Lanka will look back at a 3-0 loss to India in the recent T20I Series with plenty of regrets, none more so than in the last match. Not only did they let India off the hook by allowing them to post more than they should have but needing just 28 off 28 with plenty of wickets in hand, they capitulated, which included losing two wickets to each of Sky Yadav and Rinku Singh’s part-time (at best) spin bowling in the last two overs. Ultimately, they went to a Super Over and lost that.  

Charith Asalanka is now the ODI skipper as well as the T20I one, which is a bit of a surprise as the former captain, Kusal Mendis, was actually getting decent results.  

Fast bowlers Mathesha Pathirana and Dilshan Madushanka are both injured as is Dushmantha Chameera so they’re certainly depleted with the ball.  

Champion spinner Wanindu Hasaranga is there but isn’t quite as effective in ODIs; Mendis and Sadeera Samarawickrama are their two most reliable batsmen.  

Possible XI:  K Mendis, Nissanka, Samarawickrama, Asalanka, Madushka, Wellage, Hasaranga, Karunaratne, Theekshana,  Asitha Fernando, Eshan Malinga.  

India 

It’s testament to India’s strength in depth that they left out so many big names in addition to starting T20I life without Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli and Ravindra Jadeja…and still beat Sri Lanka easily in their own backyard.  

There’s no Jadeja but the other two return with Sharma still the skipper.  

The batting looks remarkably strong, with KL Rahul and Shreyas Iyer returning to international duty after missing out on the T20I World Cup success. Sky Yadav, the new T20I captain, has been rested. So has all-rounder Hardik Pandya.  

There’s no Jasprit Bumrah or Mohammad Shami either though, so they’re not at full strength when it comes to pace bowling, but Mohamamed Siraj and Khaleel Ahmed are decent replacements.  

Possible XI: Sharma, Gill, Kohli, Pant, Rahul, Parag, Axar, Sundar, Arshdeep, Ahmed, Siraj,      

Pitch and conditions  

The R Premadasa Stadium in Colombo is a typical Sri Lankan wicket in that it’s a good batting surface over the first few overs so that’s when you need to score your quick runs. After that it will take spin, so it would be no surprise if both sides didn’t bowl at least 25-30 overs of spin during the innings.  

It’s an afternoon start so there may well be dew in the second innings, making gripping the ball harder for spinners. The skipper wining the toss may well want to chase if they think it will be too much of a handicap for their bowlers in te second innings.  

Sri Lanka vs India Odds

Sri Lanka are 7/2, India are 1/5. No surprises there.  

India have won all of the last five between these two and despite the disappointment of last year’s World Cup final loss to Australia, are probably the best ODI side in the world.  

The return of Kohli and Sharma gives them a formidable batting line-up and though they’re never quite the same side without the balance provided by Jadeja and genius of Bumrah, the bowling is still pretty strong.  

A full-strength Sri Lanka side may have been pretty competitive on home soil but one lacking three of their more reliable pacemen and who showed a real lack of bottle in that T20I Series is unlikely to test India too much.  

Still, India might reach 1.5 in-running, especially if Sri Lanka make a good start with the bat, which could well happen in the absence of Shami and Bumrah. If they do, go for it. 

*You can check out all of our Cricket Odds over on betfred.com

India Top Batsman  

As ever, the India top batsman market reads like a ‘who’s who’ of world-class top order batters.   

You can get 23/10 on Kohli and 11/4 on his skipper, Rohit Sharma.  

Rishab Pant, who is probably the quickest scorer and the most unorthodox batter of theirs in this format is an interesting 5/1 but if he bats at five or six, may not get a fair crack of the whip.  

So the one I like is Shubman Gill at 3/1. If he plays (he should) he’ll open, so he’ll certainly have every chance. After 44 ODIs he averages over 60, has six centuries and 13 fifties so his record is as good as anyone’s. In fact, his average is better than that of Kohli or Sharma, albeit from far fewer matches.  

The other big advantage to backing Gill is that he played in the recent T20I Series and was Player of the Series, no less, so is both in form and used to conditions. That’s a lot of boxes ticked for a 3/1 chance.  

India Top Bowler  

In this one I like the credentials of Axar Patel.  

If India go with two spinners he’s very likely to be one of them because he also bats and is generally good for his 10 overs so you’ll get a good run for your money.  

Though his record isn’t fantastic in ODIs, it’s good enough with 60 wickets in 57 matches and Axar just seems to get better and better, year by year. More variations, more thinking about how to get batsmen out as his career progresses. He’s certainly a wily operator.  

Given the strong record of spinners at this ground, he looks a good bet at 4/1.  

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...