South Africa vs England Prediction: Jamie likes boosted 9/4 shot for Karachi clash

England are out but South Africa aren't, so there’s still plenty to play for in Karachi on Saturday (09:00, live on Sky Sports Cricket).

Our cricket expert Jamie Pacheo shares his South Africa vs England predictions, complete with the odds and team news at time of publication.

South Africa vs England Odds

First things first, let’s not read too much into the fact that either SA need to win or at least that they know that they have a semi to look forward to, whereas England are out whatever happens here.

At this level, individuals and teams as a whole make mistakes in choices and execution but no side just goes out and plays like it doesn’t matter.

Betfred's odds compilers recognise this, making SA the 4/5 favourites (55% implied probability) and England 1/1. If they thought England weren’t bothered about winning the game, Bavuma’s men would be much shorter.

The point here is that SA are the better side irrespective of who needs to do what, and the pre-toss price isn’t too bad at all, especially as the toss is unlikely to make too much of a difference. But we can find better bets.

Team News

England

There will inevitably be some changes going forward after yet another disastrous campaign in a major tournament.

Whether Jos Buttler decides to stay on as captain, or his hand is forced, remains to be seen. A couple of players may call it a day entirely as far as ODIs go.

They’ll look back at those two matches where they lost to Australia and Afghanistan and think that on another day, they could have won them both.

But they didn’t and similar to Pakistan, they found out the hard way that in this tournament you need to hit the ground running, rather than finding your way into it.

Joe Root, a 2/1 winner for us after backing him to score a 50 was the biggest positive in the last match with an excellent 120 but understandably, was out on his feet for the last few overs and Jos Buttler and Ben Duckett aside (both scoring 38), he had little in the way of support.

The Jamie-Smith-at number-three experiment clearly didn’t work and you have to wonder what the thinking was there in the first place.

So, there will shortly be an inquiry into all that went wrong but England will at least want to finish the campaign on a high so will pick their best side, whatever that is, rather than giving players a game just for the sake of it.

Rehan Ahmed might play with Mark Wood making way.

Possible XI: Duckett, Salt, Smith, Root, Brook, Buttler, Livingstone, Overton, Archer, Rashid, Wood/Ahmed

South Africa

It’s been a while since we last saw this lot in action after their game against  Australia was washed out.

At the time of writing, the Aussies are playing against Afghanistan. If Australia win, South Africa are through whatever happens here courtesy of the win and the washed-out match, whereas Rashid and co would only have managed that sole win against England.

If Afghanistan win, SA need to win this one to make the semis. But even if they know they’re through, the Proteas aren’t a side to cruise their way through major tournaments so it’s almost irrelevant for the purposes of betting on this match whether Australia win or not.

They’ve been a bit quiet about the exact injury that Heinrich Klassen is carrying but given he’s a had a few more days to recover, he’s likely to play.

Possible XI: Bavuma, Rickleton, van der Dussen, Markram, Klassen/Stubbs, Miller, Jansen, Mulder, Maharaj, Rabada, Ngidi

Pitch and Conditions

There have been two matches at Karachi so far this Champions Trophy and both saw the side batting first not just getting to 300 but 320 (New Zealand, against Pakistan) and 315 (SA against Afghanistan) so we know this is a good wicket.

The first was one by the team batting first and the second by the chaser but so far there hasn’t been a toss bias at this tournament. Simple as it may sound,  the better team on the day has won their matches rather than the one being luckier at the toss.

One thing we don’t have to worry about is the weather. The forecast is fine, so we’ll definitely get a game in and probably, a full one.

1pt PickYourPunt - Ryan Rickleton to score 50+ runs @ 9/4

‘Greed is good’. So said Gordon Gekko, or Michael Douglas if you prefer, in Wall Street.

But sometimes it’s not. Sometimes it’s better to back the man you like to do his own thing rather than having to beat everyone else. Or to put it another way, we prefer the boosted 9/4 that Ryan Rickleton gets to 50 than the 4/1 that he top scores for his side.

SA are one of those sides where anyone in the Top 6 could easily win this heat on their day.  You could have a perfectly good bet on Rickleton to top score, watch him get to 70 and then watch a Markram or Klassen smash a quick 80.

Rickleton not only has a century to his name from his one appearance in this tournament but crucially, it was at this very ground so he should know the wicket and his scoring areas well.

There may be changes elsewhere but they shouldn’t affect Rickleton batting at the top of the order, always a huge plus. He ticks a lot of boxes.

1pt Wiaan Mulder - Top Home Team Bowler @ 9/2

The Proteas only used five bowlers in that win over Afghanistan. That’s not that surprising considering that they only really have six bowlers in the side, if you accept that Tristan Stubbs (who might not play anyway) isn’t a proper bowler. Aiden Markram, who didn’t bowl at all last time, is that sixth option.

Markram may bowl a couple of overs, or he may not bowl at all but the other five should all get through their 10 overs, or close to that.

It’s no surprise that Kagiso Rabada (14/5) and Marco Jansen (3/1) are the favourites but at 9/2 you can back Wiaan Mulder, who is the biggest price of the five.

Sure, his ODI career figures aren’t as good as the others, hence the price, but it may just be that the England batters look to target him rather than the bigger name bowlers and pay the price. He was good in the first match, taking 2-36 with only Rabada taking three; so he should enjoy bowling on this pitch again.

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers cricket and European football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our cricket hub page...