Pakistan vs England Prediction: Wicketkeepers can provide betting value in First Test
It's the First Test at Multan starting at 06:00 on Monday with live broadcast on Sky Sports Cricket as England look to build on a good summer and Pakistan look to recover from back-to-back shock losses to Bangladesh.
Jamie Pacheco is backing England to win and also has selections at 12/1, 9/2 and 5/2 on the side markets with plenty of good value bets on offer as he takes us through his England vs Pakistan Predictions...
Pakistan vs England 1st Test Betting Tips
*You can check out all of our markets and Cricket Odds over at betfred.com
Pakistan
Pakistan are quite frankly, a mess. This isn’t the time or place to go into their problems at administration level but suffice to say the shortcomings of the PCB are having detrimental effect on the performances of the team in all formats.
From a failure to make the semi-finals of last year’s ODI World Cup to a disastrous exit at this year’s T20I World Cup, to losing 2-0 to Bangladesh in a Test series at home - the only two defeats to the Tigers in this format in their history - it’s been a bad last couple of years.
A look at the ICC Test World Championship rankings tells you all you need to know: they’re eighth out of nine with just two wins from seven Tests in this cycle and five losses.
Shaheen Shah Afridi is in the squad but was dropped for the Second Test against Bangladesh so he’s likely to play rather than guaranteed to play. Fellow quick Naseem Shah is out of form and Babar Azam, one of the top batsmen in the world in any format has now gone 15 Test innings without a 50. New skipper Shan Masood has lost all his five games in charge as Test skipper. Problems everywhere you look.
Possible XI: Shafique, Ayub, Masood, Babar, Shakeel, Rizwan, Agha, Afridi, Noman Ali, Ahmed, Hamza.
England
That England were a bit complacent and allowed Sri Lanka to win the last Test of their summer against the odds is cricket’s equivalent of ‘First World Problems’ compared to Pakistan’s ongoing issues. Besides, the criticism aimed towards their somewhat lackadaisical approach to that Third Test and Harry Brook in particular seems to have been taken on board and they’ll learn and move on from it.
England have announced their team for Monday so we know exactly what we’re getting.
There’s no Ben Stokes for this one as he’s not yet fully fit so they’ll carry on playing keeper Jamie Smith at six, play Chris Woakes as an all-rounder at seven and four other frontline bowlers.
Gus Atkison keeps his place after two impressive Test series at home, as does spinner Shoaib Bashir. Brydon Carse will make his debut while Jack Leach returns after injuries and a preference for Bashir over him kept him out of the side of late.
Zak Crawley also returns as opener with Dan Lawrence axed as expected. Ollie Pope carries on deputising for Stokes as captain.
Possible XI: Crawley, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Smith, Woakes, Atkinson, Carse, Bashir, Leach.
Pitch and conditions
It’s going to be boiling in Multan with temperatures in excess of 35 degrees Celsius so the fast bowlers will have to have their workloads managed carefully.
Only six Tests have been played here. Including the one in 2006, the hosts won three, drew one and lost to India in 2004. Two years ago England won a close one here by just 26 runs as Pakistan failed to chase 355. It was a good Test match pitch where the spinners made an impact (Abrar Ahmed took 11 wickets in the match) but also one where the express pace of Mark Wood made its mark too, as he took six in the game. Harry Brook scored 108 in the second innings.
So it should be a fair contest between bat and ball and one where all types of bowlers can get something out of the surface.
There’s no rain forecast (far from it), there’s only been one draw in six Tests here and the way England play the game, draws are pretty unlikely wherever they are or whoever they’re up against. So the draw at 4/1 can be discounted.
Pakistan are 6/4 but it’s hard to see how or why there would be a significant improvement almost overnight. Azam and Afridi, their two best players are currently a shadow of themselves, skipper Masood is in a bit of a rut of his own and there are other out of form players elsewhere. With morale low after that Series defeat to Bangladesh and memories of a 3-0 loss to England the last time they were, it’s hard to make a case for them.
Unsurprisingly, it’s far easier to make as case for England even if odds of 11/10 look a little skinny for a side who don’t often perform that well in the subcontinent.
Still, Stokes or no Stokes, they’re a settled side with an aggressive and capable Top 6 and two fine spinners in Bashir and Leach who may well match what their Pakistani counterparts do.
Test cricket is a long game and we simply have to go with the team who’s likely to win more Sessions, do the basics right and stay focused; and there are no prizes for guessing who that is.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
England Top Batsman
Jamie Smith was a big-priced winner for us in the summer at 12/1 and whereas I certainly haven't forgotten about that, maybe the Betfred odds-compilers have because they're laying the same price on him again.
To an extent it's understandable that a man with just six Tests under his belt and who has never played one abroad should be that sort of price, especially in alien conditions to him.
But he's made the most of those six Tests with one century and three fifties and an average of almost 50 and his fearless approach and contained aggression may be just the sort that puts bowlers off their plans.
It may well be that it's tougher to bat at the start, that two or three wickets fall quickly and that Smith will have plenty of time and partners around to make his mark. At those odds, you only need for him to come off once in a blue moon, so we can't turn them down.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Pakistan Top Batsman
It says a lot about the frailties in Pakistan's batting line up that Mohammad Rizwan is 'just' 9/2 despite being a keeper and like Smith, batting at six.
But it's not a bad price at all. He was one of the few consistent performers in that horror show against Bangladesh with scores of 171, 51, 29 and 43 and also showed some form in the hastily arranged domestic one-day tournament that preceded this Series.
He's played here before, he's played England plenty of times before and with the likes of Babar and Masoon having plenty on their minds, it would be just like him to go out and play his positive brand of cricket full of sweeps, slog sweeps and clips. At 9/2 he may not have much to beat.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Pakistan Top Bowler
For Pakistan top bowler it's impossible to ignore the credentials of Abrar Ahmed at 5/2.
As we said already, he took 11 wickets in the match the last time these two played here at Multan and that was no one-off because he's got 39 wickets in just seven Tests, excellent figures indeed.
He'll get through plenty of overs here on a wicket that he has good memories of and if anyone is going to really trouble the England batting line-up, it's him.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...
Share Article
New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.
