New Zealand vs India Prediction: Always bet on Black with Kiwis a fine 7/4 price

The two best sides in the tournament play the last of the Group matches in Dubai on Sunday, start time 09:00, live on Sky Sports Cricket.

Jamie Pacheco thinks the Kiwis can upset the odds and talks you through 9/2  and 28/1 selections elsewhere. Below you can find his New Zealand vs India predictions.

Cricket Odds

India

Everything has gone to plan so far for India. Two matches, two comfortable wins, with their strong top order firing and their bowlers sharing the wickets in a real team effort.

They used to say Ian Botham wrote his own scripts when performing those miracles against Australia (and others) and Virat Kohli is similar in that regard.  For much of his innings he didn’t seem like getting out but he also didn’t seem like he’d get to 100. Yet, there he was, timing things to perfection so that the winning runs were also the ones that got him to 100, against deadly rivals Pakistan.

They haven’t missed the great Jasprit Bumrah much so far with Mohammed Shami and Harshit Rana filling in well for him with the new ball.

No side is perfect or invincible but given the conditions, this is one of the strongest we’ve seen in a while.

They may have to make changes, though. Skipper Rohit Sharma has a hamstring injury and Shami has some sort of niggle too, so given this isn’t a must-win game and that they’re probably not fussed about who they play in the semi, they’d be well-advised to leave them both out here.

Rishabh Pant and Arshdeep Singh are the likely replacements.

Possible XI:   Sharma/Pant, Gill, Kohli, Iyer, Axar, Rahul, Pandya, Jadeja, Rana, Shami/Arshdeep, Yuldav.

New Zealand

New Zealand haven’t done much wrong themselves.

A super win over Pakistan was followed up by a professional job over Bangladesh, who had New Zealand in a bit of trouble after claiming three wickets, only to see centurion Rachin Ravindra and the increasingly impressive Tom Latham steady the ship and see their side home.

Ravindra, who scored 112, came in because Daryl Mitchell was unwell but is likely to keep his place; which is understandable. Will Young, a centurion himself in the first match, may be sacrificed.

Elsewhere, our 4/1 pick for top bowler Michael Bracewell took four wickets to hand us a good win and could be one of their key players from hereon; it would be a surprise if sooner or later he didn’t make a handy contribution with the bat, too. Kyle Jamieson, something of the forgotten man of New Zealand cricket, came in for Nathan Smith last time and had a good game with the ball.

This is an excellent New Zealand side who looks to have all the bases covered.

Possible XI: Conway, Young/Ravindra, Williamson, Mitchell, Latham, Phillips, Bracewell, Santner, Henry, Jamieson, O’Rourke.

Pitch and conditions  

Dubai is a very different ground to what everyone else has been playing on over in Pakistan. We’d already said before the tournament began that it was likely to be the lowest-scoring ground of the lot and it’s been that way so far.

Over in Pakistan, 300 is the automatic target for the side batting first, here it’s more likely to be 270 with 290 a score that should easily win you the game.

New Zealand will have to realise this and be a bit more cautious in their approach with the bat rather than being gung-ho. But their spinners should be more than a match for India’s on a tacky surface.

Match Winner market

India are hot favourites. Of course they are. And we don’t have a problem with that. So the question is less about their favourite status and what exactly their price, or more to the point, what New Zealand’s price is.

India are 4/9, implied probability 70%. New Zealand are 7/4, which is 36%.

1pt Back New Zealand to win @ 7/4

India have two big factors in their favour. The first is that they know this Dubai surface well from having played there twice, when the Kiwis haven’t. The second is that they’ve beaten New Zealand in each of their last five ODIs against them.

But the men in black have their own trump cards. Including that Tri-Series before this tournament began, they’re now on a five-match winning streak in Asian conditions and look beautifully-balanced.

One also shouldn’t underestimate the impact of the possible absences of Sharma and Shami. Their replacements are fine players of course but even just the fact that Pant will come in, if the skipper misses out will inevitably mean a re-shuffle to the batting line-up, with Rahul probably opening.

I’d probably make the Kiwis about 11/8 for this one given these are the two best sides in the competition so I’m more than happy to take the 7/4 on New Zealand.

1pt Back Tom Latham to be New Zealand Top Batsman @ 9/2  

If Mitchell comes back into the side, expect him to like the surface and find it suited to his dogged style of batting. He’s 4/1.

But at the slighter bigger price, I’ll take Tom Latham, instead, at 9/2.

He came into the tournament worried about his place but defied the critics with 118 not out and 55 in his two games to date to put him top of New Zealand’s runscoring charts and fourth in the tournament overall. He’s another whose game is well-suited to a slow, two-paced surface with his flicks and sweeps.

The normally uber-consistent Kane Williamson hasn’t got going yet and the openers may have a hard time against the new ball, so Latham looks a good pick.

0.25pts Back Hardik Pandya to be India Top Batsman @ 28/1

I’ve talked twice already about how trying to play the India top batsman market is a bit pointless because it’s near-on impossible to predict which one will have his day.

But the 28/1 on Hardik Pandya is a pretty ridiculous price.

If you can live with the fact that he’s likely to bat at seven and may not get a bat at all, take it. He may get promoted up the order; last time he batted at five. Or India may have an uncharacteristic collapse, opening the door for him to get to 40 or 50, which could be enough. The man has 11 ODI fifties to his name so it’s a huge price if based on ability alone.