New Zealand v England Prediction: Young gun Bethell stands out at 11/2 in 3rd Test

New Zealand host England on Friday night on TNT Sports 1 with a start time of 22:00 at Hamilton in what is the final match of what's been a decent Series, with England now 2-0 up.     

Jamie Pacheco has found a real value bet in the England first innings top batsman market at 11/2 while the extremely impressive Brydon Carse can strike as top bowler again at 9/4. Check out his preview and his New Zealand vs England Predictions below...

*You can check out all of our Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

New Zealand  

If it was their fielding that cost them the First Test, this time round it was their batting and bowling, and let's face it: you're not going to win many matches where those two disciplines let you down.  

They let England off the hook in the first innings after starting well with the ball, put in a poor performance with the bat themselves and then conceded a total the second time round that was always going to be impossible to get anywhere near.  

Positives: Tom Blundell, who was in poor form, scored their first and only century of the Series so far with a really gutsy knock, while Nathan Smith had a decent all-around game with four first innings wickets and some useful lower-order runs. But that's as good as it got and it's rare to see a New Zealand side, in any format, with so many out-of-form players.  

In normal circumstances, they would have considered dropping Tim Southee for the Third Test, who has been poor. But these aren't normal circumstances because he's retiring at the end of the Series so it would be very unlike the Kiwis to not let him enjoy his last-ever Test. So, if they decide to bring in spinner Mitchell Santner, it could be at the expense of Will O'Rourke.  

Who is definitely missing is Devon Conway, who will attend the birth of his child, so in comes Wil Young, recently Player of the Series in that win out in India. Conway's absence is a blessing in disguise because he was really struggling.  

Possible XI:  Latham, Young, Williamson, Ravindra, Mitchell, Blundell, Phillips, Southee, O'Rourke/Santner, Henry, Smith.  

England 

England put in a really good performance in that win last week, with everyone doing their bit.  

There was another brilliant century from new Number 1-ranked Test batsman Harry Brook, a fine knock from Ollie Pope, good second-innings 90s from both Ben Duckett and Jacob Bethell, and more wickets from Brydon Carse, who is increasingly looking the real deal. Ben Stokes even took three wickets to wrap up the game, despite questions about whether he'd be able to bowl.  

 So, lots to like about their performance in the Series so far.  

It will be interesting to see if they decide to make changes with the Series won.  

Carse or Gus Atkinson could be given a breather given how important they are to the cause, with Olly Stone or Matthew Potts getting a game.  

Rehan Ahmed may come in for Shoaib Bashir. The more interesting call will be whether Ollie Robinson comes in to keep wicket. The smart money is on Pope keeping the gig, which allows England to give Bethell more game, time rather than sacrificing him to bring in Robinson.  

Possible XI: Duckett, Crawley, Bethell, Root, Brook, Pope, Stokes, Woakes, Atkinson/Potts, Carse/Stone, Bashir/Ahmed. 

Pitch and conditions  

The Kiwis are unbeaten in their last nine here at Hamilton, with seven wins and two draws since 2013. They beat the West Indies three times during that period and one of those draws was against England back in 2019, with Joe Root scoring a double-hundred in it.  

Batting seems to have got harder here over the last few years, so anything above 280-300 in the first innings can be considered a good score.  

There might be a bit of rain on days one and four but not enough to suggest we'll lose enough overs to bring the draw into play on weather grounds alone.  

New Zealand vs England 3rd Test Odds

It's 6/5 New Zealand, which is implied probability of 45.5%, England are 5/6 (54.5%) with the draw a 15/2 chance, or 11.8%.  

New Zealand are unbeaten here in their last nine as we know, which is impressive, but in that period, they didn't play Australia or India and only played England once, so that has to be taken into consideration.    

As does the fact they had a good record in Wellington too, only to lose comfortably against a better side.   

England have outplayed the hosts in all three disciplines so far and even with the odd change to their side, should be too strong. There's not much wrong with that price but we can find better bets.  

England First Innings Top Batsman    

Joe Root (3/1) has a really poor record of winning the first innings top batsman market as we know so has to be swerved at those odds; and we can add Ben Stokes too (9/1), on the grounds that coming in at seven, at least one batsman will have a big score on the cards before he makes his way to the crease.  

Crawley (6/1) looks terribly out of form and like a man going for his shots every ball simply because he doesn't trust himself to stick around for long.   

A case could be made for Ben Duckett (7/2) who never seems out of form and Harry Brook, who has top-scored for England in the first innings in both matches so far and is looking like one of the best batsmen in the world. No surprises given he is after all, ranked Number 1 in this format.  

But on price, it's Jacob Bethell who gets the nod at a far bigger 11/2. Knocks of 50 and 95 in the first two Tests are evidence he certainly belongs at this level and that's a pretty good price about a man in form, batting as high as three, who looks the real deal.  

He'll top this market plenty of times over the next few years and this may just be the game he does it for the first time in the first innings.  

England First Innings Top Bowler  

Carse (9/4) is head and shoulders above everyone in terms of wickets for the Series, having taken 16 wickets so far, which is seven more than Matt Henry and eight more than Gus Atkinson, who is 11/5. Unsurprisingly, it also means he has a far better strike rate than anyone else. 

The market seems to see this as a shoot-out between Atkinson and Carse given the likes of Bashir and Stokes probably won't bowl much; Woakes is consistent rather than prolific.  

But Carse has a far better record so far this Series and will probably bowl more overs in the first innings, so should be clear favourite in our opinion. Carse it is.  

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...