New Zealand v England Prediction: Why Henry and Mitchell are carrying our money in 2nd Test

New Zealand host England on Thursday night on TNT Sports 1 with a start time of 22:00 at Wellington, looking to bounce back from a frustrating First Test defeat.    

Jamie Pacheco is eyeing up one of the Kiwis' quicks for first innings top bowler honours and thinks Daryl Mitchell can keep up his excellent record of scoring runs against England as he takes us through his New Zealand vs England Predictions for the Second Test...

*You can check out all of our Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

New Zealand  

Eight dropped catches in England's first innings was what cost them the match.  240 further runs were scored by the players who had earlier been put down and that included somehow giving Harry Brook - who went on to make 171 - five lives. It cost them, and it cost us, because we were relatively confident about them taking first blood in Christchurch.  

Though England may have possibly chased those anyway in the fourth innings, the uneven bounce when New Zealand batted again suggested that would have been a pretty steep task. Players from both teams said afterwards that the grass banks around the ground made the ball hard to see when it was in the air but that doesn't fully explain why New Zealand dropped so many, and England didn't.  

In terms of positives, they will have been delighted to see Kane Williamson (93 and 61) in good form after a lengthy absence with two excellent, patient knocks, while Daryl Mitchell continued his love affair with England bowlers by scoring a superb second-innings 84 in tough conditions that in different circumstances may have won them the match.  

Devon Conway struggled but still has plenty of credit in the bank, unless they want to make the somewhat bold move of bringing in Will Young for him. Maybe it's not that bold after all given, he was Player of the Series in that remarkable win in India last month.  

The other possibility is to sacrifice the all-round skills of Glenn Phillips and find a space for Young in the middle-order, where he's batted before.  

Mitchel Santner could come in for Will O'Rourke if they decide to play a frontline spinner.  

Possible XI:  Latham, Conway, Williamson, Ravindra, Mitchell, Blundell, Phillips/Young, Southee, O'Rourke/Santner, Henry, Smith.  

England 

England managed to overcome the issue of having to play Ollie Pope as a makeshift keeper at the last minute to secure a good win. Curiously, despite batting at six and having to keep wicket as well, Pope scored his highest score in six Tests with a good first innings 77 and was a safe pair of hands behind the stumps.  

Brook carried on showing us he's a special player with a brilliant 171, his seventh century in just 22 Tests to take his career average above 60. But he wasn't man-of-the-match. That honour fell to Brydon Carse, who took 10 wickets in the match to go with a handy 33 not out off just 24 balls. He's looking a serious player and is now a crucial man in this side.  

Skipper Ben Stokes seemed to pick up an injury while bowling on Day Four and didn't complete his over, but he put it down to soreness and just a precaution as the game was as good as won when he pulled up. So, we're likely to see him bowl but just how much, remains to be seen.  

The bowling attack should stay the same with the only question mark being over the keeper's spot. They can bring in Ollie Robinson and play him at seven, drop Jacob Bethell, have Pope return to three and move Stokes up to six. Or they can leave things as they are given Pope's performance last time and a desire to retain the status quo.     

Possible XI: Duckett, Crawley, Bethell, Root, Brook, Pope, Stokes, Woakes, Atkinson, Carse, Bashir. 

Pitch and conditions  

New Zealand will be confident if they look at their recent record here at Wellington. Since 2017, they've played here eight times, winning six, drawing one and only losing the last time they were here, to Australia, in February this year.  

For the record, those wins came against: West Indies (twice), Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka and England.  

The England win was the famous one from February 2023 where they won by just one run, with James Anderson last man out with the game at his mercy.  

This is generally a good wicket to bat on in the first innings, so 400 may be on the cards for whoever gets first use of the pitch.  

New Zealand vs England Second Test Odds

It's evens the pair, implied probability of 50% with the draw 7/1 (12.5%).  

Let's first consider the latter. As we know, there's been just one draw here in the last eight, despite some big first innings scores. If we do get some rain, it's likely to be just a little on days four or five, so weather isn't a factor to give great importance to.  Add to the equation, England's record of not being involved in many draws since the start of Bazball and we can come to the conclusion that the 7/1 on the draw looks like the sensible price. 

New Zealand are a tempting bet to bounce back. As we said already, it was those catches that were the difference last time out and it's unlikely they'll drop nearly as many again here. They have that excellent record of only losing once here in their last eight and Wiliamson's form will be a big bonus to them. 

But I'll just about avoid the temptation to back them and look to the side markets.   

New Zealand First Innings Top Bowler   

Matt Henry didn't deserve to be on the losing side last time out, returning figures of 4/84 in the first innings. Given he was also top bowler in the First Test in India last month with a remarkable 5/15 and he's won two of the last three New Zealand first innings top bowler heats.  

For the record, he's taken more wickets against England than any other side he's faced, though he has admittedly played them more than any other team.  

What we need to take note of is that in that loss to Australia in February this year here at Wellington, he returned figures of 5/70 and followed that up with 3/36 in the second innings, so he has a fine record here.  

Unfortunately, the Betfred odds-compilers are alert to the danger of Henry, making him the 9/4 favourite. But add to the equation that we'd expect him to have use of the new ball and that he should bowl more overs than anyone else and it's a price we're still happy to take.  

1st Innings Daryl Mitchell Total Runs Over/Under 28.5 

We mentioned Daryl Mitchell loves playing England. Here's the proof. He's played them in eight Tests, batting 14 times, and has three centuries and six fifties to show for his efforts, averaging an incredible 70.33 against them.  

In his last 11 knocks against England, he scored: 108, 190, 62 not out, 109, 56, 0, 57, 13, 54, 19 and 84. In eight out of those 11 he passed 28.5 runs, which is what we'd need here. Having played so well in the third innings last week with that 84 and protected from the new ball batting at five, we think he should be able to get to the magical 29 run-mark here for our second wager of the match.  

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...