India v New Zealand Prediction: Ravi & Ravindra’s prices are too big to ignore

India host New Zealand on Friday with a start time of 04:00 as they look to save pride and salvage some crucial World Test Championships after the shock of going 2-0 down at home. The match is live on TNT Sports 1.  

Jamie Pacheco has mammoth 20/1 and 50/1 selections on the India Top batsman market, while 18/5 chance Devon Conway is carrying his money on the Kiwi top bat market. You can check out his full preview and India vs New Zealand Predictions with us right here at Betfred Insights...

India  

After losing the Second Test last week, there's more at stake than just pride for India.  

Making the World Test Championship final (which they've already done twice, losing both times) looked a mere formality before this Series with many predicting a 3-0 clean sweep or at least a Series win. But at 2-0 down and with the 5-Test Series in Australia coming up- as hard as it gets in this format - they'll be desperate for a Third Test win and the points that come with it.

Given New Zealand are one of their rivals for one of those two spots and you can see why this match is even more important to them.  

India want a raging turner at Mumbai as we'll discuss in due course so three spinners again it is. Surprisingly, it was the junior member of the trio - Washington Sundar - who was in business last time out with 11 wickets in the match, so he'll keep his place.  

There's an outside chance that Axar Patel could come in for either Ravindra Jadeja or Ravi Ashwin who were both very disappointing with the ball. But Jadeja top-scored with the bat in both innings (!) so it would be an odd decision to drop him. All of which means they may well play the same side again, with Sarfaraz Khan preferred to KL Rahul.  

Possible XI:  Sharma, Jaiswal, Gill, Kohli, Sarfaraz, Pant, Jadeja, Ashwin/Axar, Sundar, Bumrah, Siraj/Deep.  

New Zealand 

This side just keeps on surprising people. In any format.  

They may or may not qualify for the WTC Final but deserve huge praise for having already won this Series whatever happens in this one.  

Mithell Santner was their hero last time out, taking 13 wickets in the match and showing his ability to bowl for long spells by getting through 50 overs.  

But let's not forget about the big contributions with the bat from Devon Conway, Tom Latham and Rachin Ravindra. You don't win Test matches just by taking wickets. You also need runs and though none of them got to a century, they were priceless knocks in the context of the match.  

There's no Kane Williamson again so the Top Seven should stay the same. Spinner Ajaz Patel had a quiet game, especially compared to Santner, but on a track that will turn from an early stage, it would be crazy not to play him here.  

Incredibly, quicks Tim Southee and Wiliam O'Rourke bowled just 12 overs between them last week so there will be no talk of fatigue.  Matt Henry, who had a fine First Test and may come in for one of them, but the most likely scenario is that they too play an unchanged side.  

Possible XI: Latham, Conway, Young, Ravindra, Mitchell, Blundell, Phillips, Santner, Southee, Patel, O'Rourke. 

Pitch and conditions  

Despite coming off second best on a wicket that took spin in Pune, India apparently want the pitch to do even more at Mumbai,  

"It will be rank turner pitch. The team management has requested to prepare a pitch which can help spinners from day 1." the Indian Express wrote.   

In other words, India think Santner and New Zealand's efforts last week were a bit of a one-off and want to double-down by preparing a pitch that will play into the hands of their trio of twirlers. Or at least that's the idea.  

The only match played here at the Wankhede Stadium over the last eight years was back in 2021, against New Zealand, curiously.  

India scored 325 and 276/7d and bowled New Zealand out for 62 and 167 so the hosts will have good memories of this ground against this lot.  

Axar Patel had a good game in that one with knocks of 52 and 41 and three wickets, so the Selectors may remember that and give him a go here.  

India vs New Zealand 3rd Test Odds

India are 1/3 (implied probability 75%), New Zealand 18/5 (22%) and the draw is 8/1 (11%).  

The first observation is that we can probably discount the draw in light of what we know about the pitch (it should be very tricky) and the weather (it should be good).  

The second is that India look mighty short given what's happened so far. This is what I said ahead of the Second Test:  

"The 5/1 on the tourists is probably the value price of the three but it's quite a lot to expect New Zealand to do it all over again. Good on them if they do so but like in the First Test, we'll leave this one alone." 

So, a missed opportunity to get with the tourists at a really big price last time out. But having been 14/1 for the First Test and 5/1 for the Second, suggesting a bet on them at 18/5 seems a bit like shutting the front door after the horse has bolted.  We sit out playing on this market once again.  

New Zealand Top Batsman  

The underrated Devon Conway (18/5) has had a good Series so far with scores of 91, 17, 76 and 17. The 76 was enough for him to win the NZ first innings top bat market last time out. His 201 runs put him second for most runs in the Series across both teams with only team-mate Rachin Ravindra getting more: 247.  

You could probably argue there's not much to choose between him and Ravindra (100/30) other than price (Conway is obviously bigger), while Daryl Mitchell looks too short at 18/5 for a man with three scores of exactly 18 (!) so far.  

It's a pretty fair price on Conway for a man with his record, recent form and ability to play spin.