India vs New Zealand Prediction: ICC Champions Trophy Final Top Bowler Markets offer interest

India and New Zealand will contest the big ICC Champions Trophy final on Sunday, start time 09:00, live on Sky Sports Cricket.  

Jamie Pacheco is leaving the winner market well alone but has unearthed a good Pick Your Punt selection, selected a champion bowler to star for India and a ludicrously-priced 28/1 chance for New Zealand top bowler honours. Check out his India vs New Zealand Predictions below...

India 

There isn't much to be said about India that we haven't said already.  

Every single player has contributed at one stage or another and after a couple of matches, they also stumbled across their best XI when leaving out Harshit Rana in favour of the extra spinner in Varun Chakravarthy.  

Virat Kohli looks to be at his best and could well end yet another ICC tournament as the leading run-scorer but there are plenty of other in-form batsmen in that middle-order, while the spinners have dovetailed beautifully. The all-rounders Axar Patel, Ravindra Jadeja and Hardik Pandya give the side great balance. 

Where they haven't really been tested is in terms of defending a sub-par score when batting first. Even that 250 against New Zealand here a week ago was a better total than it first seemed so if they bat first and fall 20 runs or so below what they should have got, it may be unchartered territory for them.   

There's no reason to think they won't be playing the same XI yet again.  

Possible XI: Sharma, Gill, Kohli, Iyer, Axar, Rahul, Pandya, Jadeja, Shami, Chakravarthy, Kuldeep.   

New Zealand  

Just about the only thing New Zealand have been guilty of this whole tournament was that failure to chase 250 last Sunday. But it was a trickier track than the one India beat Australia on, India and Chakravarthy in particular were brilliant with the ball and impressive in the field and it's hard to think of any team that would have got over the line in that one. 

One thing they have to make sure they do here is learn from their mistakes, though. A failure to find ways to rotate the strike was their downfall and they either need to innovate, run better or target certain bowlers because going almost into Test match mode is a sure way to defeat. After all, it's probably a 250 pitch again, not a 150 one.  

They have two problems to tackle. The first is that Rachin Ravindra, twice a centurion this tournament, is unlikely to find this pitch to his liking. The second is that Matt Henry, the tournament's leading wicket-taker, is carrying a shoulder injury. He should play but it would be a big blow if he doesn't.  

Possible XI: Young, Ravindra, Williamson, Mitchell, Latham, Phillips, Bracewell, Santner, Jamieson, Henry/Duffy, O'Rourke 

Pitch and conditions   

We should know what to expect here in Dubai. As opposed to, we do know what to expect here.  

The reason for that is we don't know which track they're going to use. If it's the one from last Sunday, 250 could well be a winning score and as many as 35-37 overs of spin could be employed by both teams. If it's the same one they used in midweek as Australia lost to India, then you could probably add at least another 25-30 runs to that, although admittedly, it could be tougher to bat on this time, given it was only in use a few days ago.   

Given the uncertainty, it's hard to know what to do at the toss. India have found a way to win doing both so that doesn't give us a particularly good clue.  

But NZ may have been quite spooked by how hard they found it to be batting second last week so in an attempt to avoid a repeat, they may go for runs on the board and look to defend what they have. As they did against South Africa in the semi, albeit in very different circumstances.   

Match Winner market   

India vs New Zealand Odds

India are 4/11, implied probability of 73%. New Zealand are 2/1 (33.3%). So, we'll say it one last time; the prices are what they should be.  

Ordinarily, a case could be made for the outsiders that at least justified a gamble. Whether it went on to win or not. They have after all been the second-best team in the tournament by some distance.  

But we can't do it. India know this track inside out, India are generally (that 2023 World Cup Final aside) pretty good in finals whereas New Zealand aren't, losing the 2019 ODI World Cup and the 2021 T20 World Cup in recent years. If it really does spin from the start, India have the better spinners.  

The one area where NZ are stronger is in the field. But as important as that is, it's probably not quite enough to swing the game in their favour.  

There's no reason why we have to play this market just because it's the final, so we won't.  

PickyourPunt selection: At Least Two Of S Iyer, V Kohli, TWM Latham Or WA Young To Score 50+ Runs In Their Innings @ 13/8 

First things first, I'd be quite surprised if anyone got to 100 on this Dubai surface. Shubman Gill managed it but that was against Bangladesh and Kohli managed it against a dispirited Pakistan side, but even those weren't easy to come by.  

But a handful of fifties on the night are a different story.  And luckily for us, the four included by the Betfred odds-compilers are all serious candidates to get one, remembering we only need two of them to cop, to have a win.  

Kohli has two centuries in four games, Young has one and is just the sort of steady-Eddie this bet requires, Iyer has scores of 15, 56, 79 and 45 so is in fine form himself and Latham is among the tournament's highest runscorers with 191 including a century and a fifty. They all bat in the Top 5 so they'll all get a decent go; so there's plenty to like about this bet.  

India Top Bowler  

A lot of the chat so far has been about the spinners but let's remember who is India's top bowler in this tournament and the second overall with 8. Yes, Mohammed Shami.  

He's one who maybe doesn't get the credit he deserves (outside India at least) but he's up there with the very best in the game in all formats.  

There's a distinct possibility that he snaps up a couple of early wickets in the Powerplay overs, takes a breather for 30 overs or so while the spinners share the wickets between them and then comes back to bowl at the death when batters are going for broke and adds another, which should be more than enough. Let's hope so at least. 100/30 is a good price given the above and more importantly, his pure ability and record.   

New Zealand Top Bowler  

Lastly, we can't let the frankly ridiculous price of 28/1 on Glenn Phillips for NZ Top bowler go unbacked.  

The Kiwis have only two frontline spinners- Bracewell and Santner; there are no others waiting in the wings for a chance. So if the wicket really is turning, skipper Santner may have no choice but to bowl part-timer Phillips for 7,8, who knows 10, overs. It's also not impossible that India only lose two or three wickets in total and that anyone with one wicket is a dead-heated winner. And at 28/1, even a share of that is a big win for us.  

Just to give you an indication of how big that price is, a well-known competitor based on the banks of the Thames is only going 9/1 on Phillips while another competitor (who may or may not sponsor West Ham) are offering just 17/2 on the big-hitting live wire. It's really not every day you get to back a player at more than three times the price he should be.